Boundary change threat to big political names

Big names on both sides of the Commons face seeing their power bases wiped from the constituency map under changes aimed at culling MPs’ numbers by 50 to 600.

But some may find boltholes under provisional proposals published today. Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, as forecast, is set to see the disappearance of Sheffield Hallam under the axe wielded by the Boundary Commission for England.

But he may have the last laugh as the net result could be two new Liberal Democrat seats in the city. On the basis of the 2010 council elections – fought on the same day as the 2010 Westminster polls – his party would have won both Sheffield South West and Sheffield West and Penistone.

We have serious concerns about the Government’s decision to change the boundaries. Ed Miliband

Other senior figures facing serious disruption or the disappearance of their seats are Cabinet ministers Ken Clarke, Iain Duncan Smith, Vince Cable and Chris Huhne. The most prominent Tory casualty is Tatton in Cheshire, represented by Chancellor George Osborne, but much of the constituency will go into a new Northwich seat.

The move to review the boundaries was launched by the Government in an attempt to iron out discrepancies in constituency electorates. These must be within 5 per cent of the national average, with the exception of Isle of Wight, Orkney and Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar, the Western Isles.

Labour could be big loser

There are already signs that Labour could be the main loser. Under the proposed allocations for England, the four regions where the party led in last year’s general election lose 19 MPs while representation of the five dominated by Tories shrinks by 12.

But in the Labour strongholds of Scotland and Wales, where initial boundary plans are due later, a further 17 seats are set to go.

The South East, the Tories’ strongest and biggest English region, has a net loss of just one seat as a result of the Isle of Wight securing an extra MP. By contrast Labour dominates London, which loses five constituencies, and its largest area, North West, is down by seven.

The overall seat figures for English regions are: Eastern – 56, down two; East Midlands – 44, down two; London – 68, down five; North East – 26, down three; North West – 68, down seven; South East – 83, down one; South West – 53, down two; West Midlands – 54, down five; Yorkshire and the Humber – 50, down four.

Wales loses a quarter of its seats, down 10 to 30, and Scotland drops seven to 52. Northern Ireland loses two constituencies, leaving it with 16.

It will be difficult for media, political and academic experts to make definitive predictions of the shake-up’s effect on party performance until at least 2013 because of the consultation and revision process.

Click on the image below for the full analysis of the changes, in graphics.

‘Gerrymandering’

Labour leader Ed Miliband accused the Conservatives of “gerrymandering” the electoral system, although the party said it would “engage constructively” with the commission’s consultation process.

“We have serious concerns about the Government’s decision to change the boundaries, which we believe was an act of gerrymandering by the Conservative Party,” Mr Miliband said.

“However, the Labour Party now intends to take time to examine the initial proposals before making our formal response.”

The government insisted that the review was about “equality and fairness” – ensuring all constituencies had roughly the same number of voters.

“At the moment, constituencies vary enormously in size so that people’s votes can carry more or less weight depending on where they live,” a Cabinet Office spokesman said.

“The government has legislated to ensure that in this boundary review, constituencies will be made more equal, making votes fairer across the country.

“It is for the boundary commissioners to decide where the constituency boundaries are drawn.”

Shadow Transport Secretary Maria Eagle’s constituency would disappear and shadow Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell may also face a selection battle if hers is split off into three others.