“Cautious not cavalier,” Roy Hodgson has every right to be confident ahead of England’s final two World Cup qualifiers, writes football commentator John Anderson.
Pictured: Jack Wilshere and teammate Kieran Gibbs with England coach Roy Hodgson (Getty Images)
Since the qualification process began with a trip to Moldova over a year ago, the phrase Road To Rio has been an oft used, if not terribly original, epithet to describe the journey which will hopefully end at the World Cup finals next summer.
For England it has not been an altogether smooth ride, with the odd road block and a couple of wrong turns along the way, but as long as the national team can bypass Montenegro and Poland on home soil, then they will finish the trip in a parking space outside the Maracana.
There are warning signs along the home straight, however. Both nations who visit Wembley over the next five days have provided gloomy nights in England’s past and more recent history. Montenegro may have the population of Bristol and gained independence more recently than Arsenal last won a trophy, but they certainly punch above their weight. The three previous encounters have all ended in draws, including the infamous game in Podgorica two years ago which saw Wayne Rooney sent off.
England and Poland have crossed paths with the regularity of neighbouring dog owners.
But hopes that the run of stalemates can finally be curtailed are boosted by reports from the Montengrin camp that they could be without up to five key players, including their all time top goalscorer Juventus striker Mirko Vucinic. Strength in depth may not be a luxury afforded to national team coach Branko Brnovic but passion and commitment are national traits; England won’t find things easy but should have the quality to win.
Roy Hodgson’s cause will be helped no end if main qualification rivals Ukraine draw with Poland in Kharkiv tonight; although a Fifa ruling that the game must be played behind closed doors after alleged racist chanting by Ukrainians against San Marino last month has been overturned on appeal.
The Poles, who still harbour qualification hopes themselves, then fly to London for a date at Wembley which falls almost 40 years to the day since their legendary draw under the twin towers prevented England reaching the 1974 World Cup finals and ended the reign of Sir Alf Ramsey as manager.
Visiting goalkeeper Jan Tomaszewski had famously been labelled “a clown” by Brian Clough before the match, but had the last laugh as a string of amazing saves saw the Poles qualify. England then looked enviously at their TV sets as Poland ended up finishing third in West Germany the following year.
Although England and Poland have crossed paths with the regularity of neighbouring dog owners in the years since, it is sometimes forgotten in the haze of negative nostalgia that the Three Lions have only ever lost one game against the Poles and have won all of the last six meetings on home soil.
Hodgson has no desire to end up on the back of the tabloids portrayed as a root vegetable.
Another anniversary worth noting is that it is 20 years ago next month that Graham Taylor’s England became the last wearing the Three Lions to fail to qualify for a World Cup finals. Hodgson has no desire to end up on the back of the tabloids portrayed as a root vegetable and so is likely to be cautious rather than cavalier in preparing for two such vital games.
One enforced change will see Leighton Baines replace the injured Ashley Cole at left back but the key dilemma will be who to play on the right flank in the absence of Theo Walcott. The smart money will be on the ever dependable James Milner rather than the talented but unproven Andros Townsend, although the in form Spurs flyer offers options from the bench if Plan A doesn’t work out.
The real boost for the England coach is that Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge and Danny Welbeck, all of whom missed the tepid draw in Ukraine last month, are back to unite their considerable attacking prowess and current form.
With those talents in harness Hodgson has a right to be confident that, come Wednesday morning, the Road To Rio won’t end up as the Road to Ruin.
England v Montenegro, Fri 11 October, 8pm
England v Poland, Tues 15 October, 8pm
John Anderson is a football commentator and sports writer. Follow @GreatFaceRadio on Twitter.