Hot summers ‘to become the norm in UK’

Researchers carried out new analysis of long range climate projections, based on 30-year averages, in an attempt to gain a better insight into what the UK’s weather will be like in the future.

The study, which was published in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows that by the year 2100, the likelihood of experiencing a blazing hot summer of the kind currently seen every 20 years rises to 90 per cent, making scorchers the norm.

The chance of a very wet summer – defined as rainfall 20 per cent above the 1961-1990 average – is expected to fall in the future, from 18 per cent in 2020 to 10 per cent eight decades later.

Cold winters are expected to become less likely, with the study suggesting that the odds of having a colder than average winter in the UK drop from around 20 per cent in 2020 to just 4 per cent by 2100.

Very cold winters, like the one in 2009/10, are expected to become almost non-existent, with just a 1 per cent chance of them occurring by the end of the century.

Met Office senior scientist Dr Glen Harris, who co-authored the research, said: “While there is a trend towards warmer winters and drier summers, there will still be a lot of variations in weather from year to year. Cold winters and wet summers just become less likely, and we will still have to be prepared for them.”

This study highlights the point that although climate change will affect the UK’s weather in the future, an element of variability will remain – just with different odds of particular types of weather happening.

Another Met Office-led study published a fortnight ago looked at the influence that dwindling solar activity could have against the backdrop of climate change.

It suggested that a return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States, but wouldn’t halt global warming.