Libya: stand-off between Gaddafi and protesters

Colonel Gaddafi joined supporters at a People’s Congress in Tripoli on Wednesday, where he voiced again his continuing defiance in the face of international pressure and violent battles between his supporters and protesters in towns and cities across Libya.

“We will enter a bloody war and thousands and thousands of Libyans will die if the United States enters or NATO enters,” he said.

The Libyan leader also dismissed reports of 2,000 deaths in the violence, saying only 150 people had died and blaming al-Qaeda.

At some stage the ability of the Government or the opposition to feed people has to be of international concern. In humanitarian terms, there is international interest in a rapid conclusion to this face off. But it looks to me like it will take a while. Middle East expert Dr Rosemary Hollis

His appearance came as forces loyal to him battled with protesters for key territory. Reports emerged, and were dismissed by opposing sides, that the rebels had lost then won back a town called Brega, 500 miles east of Tripoli. Pro-Gaddafi jets also bombed an arms dump in the nearby city of Ajdabiya, according to reports. Police and the army in the city have reportedly joined rebels.

Channel 4 News International Editor Lindsey Hilsum said that young men in Ajdabiya were “loosing off anti-aircraft guns” while Gaddafi’s forces focused on Brega.

Read more: Channel 4 News Special Report on the Arab revolt

Defiance

Earlier, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Libya could face civil war as the international community continued to put the pressure on a defiant Gaddafi. Two US warships – USS Kearsarge and USS Ponce – are on their way to the Mediterranean Sea, close to Libya and the country was expelled from the UN Human Rights Council on Tuesday.

The rebels said they wanted international help in ousting Gaddafi – but proposals for a “no-fly zone” suggested on Tuesday and implemented by outside forces were dismissed by military experts. Any other intervention would be an extraordinary step for the international community – despite its fierce rhetoric – after the years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan which resulted from this type of policy.

Mustafa Gheriani, a spokesman for the rebel February 17th coalition, said: “We are probably going to call for foreign help, probably air strikes at strategic locations that will put the nail in his [Gaddafi’s] coffin.”

Tens of thousands of people continued to cross the border to escape the instability – many appear to be workers from nations which do not have the capacity to evacuate their citizens.

Britain has pledged to help with the growing humanitarian crisis. So far an estimated 162,000 people have crossed the Libyan land borders.

Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions, David Cameron said 1500 tents and 36,000 blankets have been flown out whilst several thousand migrant Egyptian workers stranded at the Tunisian border would be airlifted back to their homeland by British planes with 6000 Egyptians to be transferred by three planes working on rotation.

On the border
Pro-Gaddafi groups at the border are there to send a message to the world that Gaddafi is still in charge, writes Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson. 

"They're here to send a message: that The Colonel remains firmly in control of his western frontier with Tunisia and not only that, the world must know that The Colonel cares for his people and even wishes to see that those who flee what is now much more civil war than revolt, are fed and watered – oh, and also filmed." 

Read more from Alex Thomson on Libya: over the wall and into civil war

‘Failed state’

Dr Rosemary Hollis, Professor of Middle East Policy Studies at City University in London, said the country was in a stalemate.

“It is an extremely sticky situation,” she said.

“The opposition to Gaddafi picked up momentum rapidly, leading to euphoria, that it was only a matter of time until he fell. But as Saif Gaddafi put it, Tripoli contains at least a third of the population. Without Tripoli, you have not got the country.

“Benghazi is the second city and it is clearly in the hands of the opposition and they have come up with an impressive way of running the place. But now it is a question of the income generated by the Government of Gaddafi or the opposition. That’s a major question.”

She said that the question of who would get the oil revenues when production resumed was key, and also stressed the freezing of assets and the fact that the latest shipment of bank notes, which are printed in the UK, had not been released.

“At some stage the ability of the Government or the opposition to feed people has to be of international concern. In humanitarian terms, there is international interest in a rapid conclusion to this face off. But it looks to me like it will take a while.”

'Bring it on' says Gaddafi 
"It looks to me like the situation could take a while to resolve - although you could have said that about Egypt, and then a combination of pressures made the people close to the big man change their calculus. That could still happen in Libya," Dr Rosemary Hollis, Middle East expert at City University, told Channel 4 News. 

"The more entrenched Gaddafi is - and judging by his reaction to the use of force by Westerners, which was "bring it on" - that would consolidate his position beautifully. If he had to go, it is much better for him to go at the hands of the West because he's a hero. For him it's win win if outsiders get involved. But if they don't get involved, because of the extremity of the situation, deals could be done with the Gaddafi regime that right now they would not think of doing."

She said the situation was not just about "running out of cash" for the opposition or Gaddafi, but rather the element to which the economy could be kept going.

"It is not just running out of cash – it's basically to what extent the economy grinds to a halt and how, and how the many international interests are affected by an oil economy grinding to a halt. In terms of supply, Saudi Arabia can more than make up for Libya's absence. The worry is that another oil country goes down the tubes, if we got Saudi Arabia going down the tubes, that would herald a wholly different conversation. That would be really extraordinary territory, but we are not there yet. We are in really interesting territory where it is what can be done to protect ordinary people – Libyans, neighbouring countries, itinerant workers, and Europeans? These are complex choices and some are mutually contradictory."

"The military option seemed appealing four days ago but then Gaddafi liked it, so Cameron went off it. Then Robert Gates in the US said basically: "You what? Another Muslim country?" and we're not even doing that well in the two we are in already." 

She said the key - but unanswerable question at this stage - is whether the West can stand back and let Libya deal with its own problems, or whether humanitarian or economic motives will push them into action. 

Dr Hollis said the battles were important in terms of securing support from people with arms, but stressed that it was impossible to say what would happen.

“For the international community, what’s irritating is that this constitutes an enjoyable period for Gaddafi. He is so obsessed with power – he will thrive on this. We could reach a point where someone takes him out in return for taking over – either from within the country or without.

“It’s impossible to say what will happen – events are shaping the different scenarios. But at its crudest, there’s a reversal for the opposition which gives Gaddafi and co more of an upper hand; the second scenario is the opposition manages to win over people who support Gaddafi and that changes the dynamic; or stalemate, and a very complex bargaining situation, where because of the complex actors and factors, what emerges is not one element’s choice, but the net effect of their interactions. Some people would call it a broken country, a failed state, a bloody mess.

“Rapid defeat of the opposition failed; rapid success of the opposition failed; now we are in bargaining territory in which the international community will want a say.”