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30 Dec 2010

Political predictions for 2011: Turkey, veterans and heirs

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Predictions in politics are a mug’s game: defining moments, from 9/11 to the banking collapse, often come from nowhere. But caveats aside, here’s some tips for 2011, from Gaby Hinsliff.

Political predictions for 2011 (Getty)

Revenge of Mumsnet

Despite the wooing of middle class mothers during the election, families with children were big Budget losers: it’s no accident the two undercover reporters who entrapped Vince Cable posed as worried mums.

Those who care for children or elderly parents notice cuts to education and social care earliest. Is this the year they turn militant?

London Mayoralty

Mayoral elections aren’t until 2012, but the long campaign begins this spring. Expect fireworks, since both Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone will happily defy their leaders if necessary to help their chances.

Those who care for children or elderly parents notice cuts to education and social care earliest. Is this the year they turn militant?

Turkey

Serious talks should begin this year about Turkey joining the EU, in what’s seen as a critical gesture of faith to moderate Muslims. But some Tory MEPs are already arguing it shouldn’t happen without a referendum in Britain first. Rising unemployment also means some member states may resist giving millions of Turks the right to work anywhere in Europe.

Veterans

They can’t strike, unlike other threatened public sector workers: they won’t riot, unlike students. But that doesn’t make shrinking the armed forces easy. With 17,000 posts due to go by 2015, troops on the frontline are safe but what about those, like the Harrier pilot who confronted Cameron last October, with distinguished past service? The hardest cuts yet for Conservative backbenchers.

NHS waiting lists

The big freeze and a flu outbreak mean many routine operations were cancelled in December: how well the NHS tackles the backlog whilst still trimming costs is an early test of Andrew Lansley’s stewardship.

Backbench knives are out for both Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg.

Heirs apparent

Backbench knives are out for both Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg: no wonder Simon Hughes, one potential rival to the Liberal Democrat leader, was this week given a job binding him to the Coalition.

David Cameron is far more secure but George Osborne’s growing reputation on the right as the true keeper of the flame hasn’t gone unnoticed. Should events weaken any of the three leaders, this could be the year of the usurper: David Miliband is going nowhere, having ruled out becoming ambassador to Washington, and nor is Ed Balls.

Gaby Hinsliff is a former Political Editor for The Observer newspaper.

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