Baby boom triggers school places crisis

A report by the National Audit Office (NAO) said here there are still signs of a real strain on school places amid a continuing surge in demand.

The report says the government is pumping billions of pounds into establishing more places, but suggested that the Department for Education (DfE) still needs a better understanding of the costs, and the impact its funding is having in local areas.

Surge in demand

The report suggests that the heightened demand for primary school places is partly down to a rising birth rate – the rise in the number of children born in England between 2001 and 2011 was the biggest 10-year increase since the 1950s.

Between 2006/07 and 2011/12, the number of four-year-olds starting reception classes rose by 16 per cent, it says.

It warns that by September 2014, an estimated extra 256,000 primary and secondary school places will be needed to meet the demand. Of these, 240,000 are required in primary schools, with more than a third needed in London alone.

These extra places are still needed despite a net increase of almost 81,500 places which were created between 2010 and May 2012, and the DfE increasing the amount of funding it gives to local councils to provide spaces.

Read Social Affairs Editor Jackie Long's blog: The hugely stressful fight for a primary school place 

How many places will be required in the future is uncertain, the NAO said, but it is expected that more will be needed beyond next year.

The report said that while the DfE considers that local councils are meeting their duty to provide enough school places, the watchdog found signs of pressure on the system.

More than a fifth (20.4 per cent) of primaries are full up, or over capacity, while the numbers of children being taught in large infant classes of 31 pupils or more has more than doubled in five years. This has gone up from 23,200 in 2007 to 47,300 in 2012, the report says.

‘Significant impact’

And an NAO survey of local councils found that more than a third (34 per cent) said that rising demand for school places has had a “significant impact” on the average time a child spends travelling to school.

The report concludes: “The department’s assessments of funding required to meet expected demand are based on incomplete information.”

In total, the DfE has allocated some £4.3bn in capital funding to local councils for new school places in England between 2010 and 2014, the report says, with an additional £982m announced in December 2012. Some of this extra money will be used to fund more places by 2014/15 and some for 2015/16. Councils’ costs of providing school places can vary, it says.

The DfE initially estimated in 2010, that it would cost £5bn to provide 324,000 places, and this would be covered by its funding and contributions from local councils.

Land costs

But this figure was based on 2007, adjusted to 2010 prices, and did not include costs such as acquiring land for new schools as the DfE assumed that most new places would be created as part of existing schools, the report suggests.

The NAO said: “The department is now creating new estimates of costs, but it is unclear whether the current level of funding will be sufficient to meet the forecast need.”

It added that the DfE has improved the information it uses to decide on funding allocations, but currently does not know enough about how councils are using the funding they have already received.

NAO head Amyas Morse said: “The department has ambitious objectives to provide school places, and to enable parents to have some choice of school for their children. However, despite increases in places and funding over the last two years, it faces a real challenge, with 256,000 places still required by 2014/15. Furthermore, there are indications of strain on school places.

“The department needs a better understanding of costs to improve value for money, as well as a better understanding of the impact its funding contribution is having on the ground.”