Romney heads for victory – again?

Michelle Bachmann’s called it a day. Rick Perry, to the surprise of his staff, is ploughing onwards. But barring any political earthquakes, it’s looking more and more like Mitt Romney will get the Republican nomination sewn up, and sooner, rather than later.

Friends and enemies

Last night was perhaps not the finest hour for the former Massachussetts governor, who segued straight from that paper-thin Iowa win to a rally in Peterborough, New Hampshire – where he appeared side by side with his 2008 rival, John McCain. Despite Mr McCain’s rallying cry “We will get an overwhelming vote that will catapult this candidate to the White House”, Mr Romney seemed uncomfortable as he faced a series of hostile questions from Occupy Wall St supporters in the audience.

We will get an overwhelming vote that will catapult this candidate to the White House. John McCain

And one of those highly-funded independent groups known as super-PACs (Political Action Committees), which backs Newt Gingrich, gleefully dredged up an old ad from Mr McCain’s 2008 campaign, mocking Romney for constantly flip-flopping on the issues.

Next stop, New Hampshire

To all intents and purposes, the campaign is powering on: there’s a flurry of activity in New Hampshire, with the party’s latest squeeze, Rick Santorum, suddenly drawing big crowds. He’s already raised a million dollars in the last 24 hours – and claims he’s having a moment. “How many pundits were right over the last six months about what was going to happen in this race? None! Serially wrong! I mean, they’re worse than weathermen. So don’t trust them. Trust yourselves.” he told supporters.

Money-go-round

But despite the latest surge in votes and cash-in-hand, Santorum still has no nationwide fundraising machine – and few troops on the ground. Romney has already out spent him six times over, and has raised tens of millions of dollars for his nationwide campaign. And that’s not counting the wealthy super-PACs behind him, like Restore Our Future, with its practically bottomless pockets.

The ‘anybody but Mitt crowd’.. will start to coalesce. Tucker Eskew, Republican strategist

There are underdogs, and there are underdogs, and in this case – as Slate’s Jacob Weisberg insists: “Rick Santorum is not, under any circumstances, going to be the GOP nominee.”

And yet, these are early days, and there’s a campaign trail to work, advertisements to broadcast, headlines to drum up. Onward, then, to New Hampshire, or to South Carolina where the irrepressible Gingrich is hoping to make a big splash. With Romney expecting to cruise to an easy win in New Hampshire next week, South Carolina could be the only chance for his conservative rivals to knock him off course.

Splitting the anti-Mitt vote?

Republican strategist Tucker Eskew told Politico that the state “will become the ground on which an ‘ABM’ movement starts to coalesce – the ‘Anybody But Mitt’ crowd. Perhaps not successfully, but there will be a drive to coalesce that vote”. But there are still three candidates on Romney’s right – and, like Iowa where 75% voters didn’t support him, his opponents are still splitting the right wing vote between them.

That long, slow plod to the nomination – backed, of course, by serious cash, doesn’t make for great headlines. But just a few days into the primary contest, it’s already starting to look like the real story of the 2012 Republican campaign.

Felicity Spector is the US politics expert for Channel 4 News. Follow her on Twitter @felicityspector