What next for leaderless al-Qaeda?
There will be reprisals to avenge the death of al-Qaeda’s Osama bin Laden, one expert tells Channel 4 News. But will his successor be able to reinvigorate a demoralised terrorist network?
Despite welcoming news of Osama bin Laden‘s death, world leaders have vowed to remain vigilant against terrorism. Counter-terrorism experts and analysts say his killing is likely to trigger a series of reprisals.
Dr Maha Azzam, Middle East expert and Associate Fellow at Chatham House, told Channel 4 News that bin Laden’s death is a huge blow to the morale of the al-Qaeda network.
“His death is highly symbolic. It’s a blow to al-Qaeda supporters because bin Laden initiated the movement and was the figurehead behind it,” she said.
“But that doesn’t mean he was in touch with day to day workings of the group. It’s not necessarily a blow at an organisational level but it will certainly affect the morale of bin Laden’s followers.”
It’s not necessarily a blow at an organisational level but it will affect the morale of bin Laden’s followers. Dr Maha Azzam, Chatham House
Ms Azzam says analysts and counter-intelligence officials expect a backlash from those wanting to avenge bin Laden’s death.
“It’s obviously difficult in an organisational and financial capacity, but there will be almost certainly be attempted attacks over the next few weeks or months.”
She says “the disenfranchised nature” of the movement means it may take some time to name a new leader.
Next leader of al-Qaeda?
Osama bin Laden’s “right hand man”, al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, is one of the likely contenders.
Zawahiri was named behind bin Laden as number two on the US Government’s “most wanted” list in 2001. He is believed to be still hiding in the mountains along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border with a $25m bounty on his head.
But Maha Azzam told Channel 4 News that he may not have the “charisma” or brand power to drive the al-Qaeda movement.
“Al-Zawahiri has always stood out as the most likely to take over. He’s been described as the brains behind the movement. But he was always seen as the successor in the early days of al-Qaeda and things have changed a lot since then.”
“Al-Zawahiri was always seen as the successor in the early days of al-Qaeda and things have changed a lot since then.” Dr Maha Azzam, Chatham House
Another possible candidate to succeed bin Laden is Anwar al-Awlaki, the Yemeni Muslim cleric linked to a series of attacks including the attempted Christmas day airline bombing and the shootings at Fort Hood.
US officials say he is the head of al-Qaeda’s operations in the Arabian Peninsula and helped recruit Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian accused of trying to blow up an airliner as it flew into Detroit on 25 December 2009.
Changing Arab world
But some say the real question is not who takes over, but how relevant al-Qaeda still is in light of this year’s Arab uprisings. Ms Azzam said recent revolutions show civilians are cutting ties to terrorist groups and using the “power of the people” to overthrow dictators.
“Al-Qaeda has clearly been marginalised from politics in much of the Middle East. The reality on the ground is that the vast majority have rejected the group’s message.
“The uprisings in the Arab world have shown that people want to bring about political change without resorting using violent tactics to bring down a regime.”
Bin Laden ‘martyred’
Pakistan’s militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba has told Muslims to be heartened by the “martyrdom” of Osama bin Laden.
The militant group behind the 2008 terror attacks on Mumbai has been holding special prayers for bin Laden in several cities.
A spokesman for LeT founder Hafiz Mohammad Saeed said he had told followers in the eastern city of Lahore that the “great person” of Osama bin Laden would continue to be a source of strength and encouragement for Muslims around the world.
“Osama bin Laden was a great person who awakened the Muslim world,” Saeed’s spokesman Yahya Mujahid quoted him as saying during prayers at the headquarters of the LeT’s charity in Lahore on Monday.
“Martyrdoms are not losses, but are a matter of pride for Muslims”, Saeed said.
Western security analysts believe that LeT is linked to al Qaeda, though LeT officials deny this.
Al-Qaeda’s ‘main driver’
Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of bin Laden, has welcomed the news of bin Laden’s death.
But Prince Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz has cast doubt over whether his death will have an impact on al-Qaeda’s operations.
“He has been an evil to himself, to his immediate family and to the Arab countries as a whole.
“But Saudi Arabia does not know if he [bin Laden] is al-Qaeda’s main driver”.