Afghanistan: a race to the exit

This is a difficult week at the end of a long war. On Monday a cargo plane crashed shortly after take-off at Bagram, killing all seven Americans on board. Today three British soldiers died when their protected patrol vehicle – the £1m Mastiff – was detonated by an improvised explosive device in Helmand.

The dead men were named by the Ministry of Defence as Corporal William Savage and Fusilier Samuel Flint, both from The Royal Highland Fusiliers, 2nd Battalion The Royal Regiment Of Scotland (2 Scots), and Private Robert Hetherington, from 51st Highland, 7th Battalion The Royal Regiment Of Scotland (7 Scots). Their families have been informed.

This incident takes the British death toll in Afghanistan to 444, a figure that raises more questions about our continued presence, the current timetable for withdrawal and the ability of Afghan forces to keep the country secure once coalition troops leave in 2014.

Propaganda victory

Coming at the start of the so-called “fighting season”, today’s incident marks the first time that the Taliban has overcome one of the coalition’s most robust vehicles: the third-generation Mastiff.

The Prime Minister has said the government will “look carefully” at the use of heavily armoured vehicles, while Nick Clegg has called for a review into the machine’s protection capabilities.

Lord Dannatt, the former army chief of staff, believes “the Taliban have found a way of countering the protective qualities and characteristics of the Mastiff”.

The MoD has not confirmed whether the device had broken through the Mastiff’s armour or if it was derailed and overturned. Either way it is a propaganda victory for the Taliban, who also tried to claim responsibility for this week’s cargo plane crash at Bagram.

Defence Secretary Philip Hammond told reporters the incident showed that our forces “are still taking huge risks in the work they are doing in Afghanistan.”

Withdrawal unaffected

So far officials say plans will not change. About two fifths of British forces will pull out from Afghanistan this year, leaving about 5,200 by the end of the year. A complete coalition withdrawal is likely by the end of 2014.

A report published by the House of Commons defence committee a fortnight ago said: “It is essential that UK Armed Forces are able to protect themselves until they leave Afghanistan. We are convinced that the withdrawal of troops will not be as straightforward or risk-free as the Ministry of Defence tells us”.

The possibility of an accelerated withdrawal remains extremely unlikely. The government has forged this timetable with the involvement of as many as 40 other countries and is aware that amending the schedule could draw criticism at home and play into the hands of the Taliban.

Last month’s defence committee report stressed the importance that the drawdown was seen as “transition” and not “withdrawal through fatigue”. In the aftermath of an attack like this, the last thing it wants to be seen as is reactive.

Afghan army under pressure

But what happens once we leave? Defence Secretary Philip Hammond has conceded it is impossible to know what will happen to Afghanistan after British, US and other Nato troops end their frontline role there at the end of 2014.

There are fears that the Afghan army will not be able to sustain itself in the face of the Taliban insurgency.

But Mr Hammond said on Wednesday the drawdown was ongoing: “we are handing over lead responsibility to the Afghans – the Afghan forces are out there on the ground controlling, taking initial action far more than our own forces.”

MPs have recently warned that a peace settlement with the Taliban is vital to ensure the country’s security. But the report said that the upsurge of violence “does not augur well for improving security and development on a long-term sustainable basis”.

Future stability will depend largely on the coalition nations continuing to provide Afghanistan with billions in aid for years to come. According to British officials, the cost of maintaining the Afghan army and police after 2014 will be more than £5bn a year.