Anne Applebaum on Trump’s approach to Nato, Ukraine and the Middle East

The US election doesn’t just have an effect in the country or on the border, but far beyond the United States, with major ramifications for Ukraine, the Middle East and the EU depending on who wins.

We spoke to Anne Applebaum, the Pulitzer prize winning American journalist and historian, and author of ‘Autocracy Inc. – the Dictators who run the World.’

Matt Frei: I can’t believe that we’re, yet again, having a discussion in this country – in this democracy – about whether one of the candidates is a wannabe fascist dictator. But that’s what people have been talking about.

Anne Applebaum: Well, to be clear, it’s his own former chief of staff who started using that language. So it’s not coming from the Democrats. It’s coming from inside his former administration.

Matt Frei: And yet, I mean, you would have thought that was a game changer, something that would disqualify you from a campaign. But it hasn’t – with half the country. Is that because they’re not feeling it, they’re not understanding it, or is it because they’re okay with it?

Anne Applebaum: I think both – some people are okay with it. They like the extreme language. Some of the language is targeted at them. Some people saw Trump’s first term, they didn’t pay that much attention. If you were paying attention, you knew that Trump was constantly trying to push against the rules, talked about breaking the constitution, wanted to order the military to fight against crowds, but he was restrained by the people around him. And what his former aides are saying is that this time, maybe he wouldn’t be restrained – and I think that’s why they started raising the alarm in the last weeks of the election.

Matt Frei: And is that because he wouldn’t have the right people around him this time because it’s all about loyalty? Or because the Supreme Court has handed any president almost pharaonic powers?

Anne Applebaum: A bit of both. He will certainly have completely different people around him. He’s made clear he only wants loyalists. The kinds of people who were around him last time have almost universally said they won’t serve again – the various generals and governors and so on are out. It’s true, the Supreme Court has granted him and all presidents, to be fair, immunity or – it was a little bit unclear – but immunity, while they’re acting as president. That may have given him, as well as some of his aides, a lot more confidence that they can break the law or they will be able to break the law.

Matt Frei: Let’s go through some foreign policy issues. Do you think Trump will pull America out of Nato?

Anne Applebaum: I think he wants to. He’s said that he wants to. Whether he will deem it politically expedient, I don’t know. Remember that Trump himself has no ideology. His interest is in himself, his power, his money, maybe the power and money of the people around him. He doesn’t really have any…he can be talked out of things one way or the other. But it is true that for 30 years there are only two pieces of policy that he’s ever said repeatedly. One of them is that he doesn’t like American allies – he thinks allies rip us off. He didn’t think we should be involved in World War II, let alone any other wars. And also, he likes tariffs. So those are the things he said consistently. But, you know, in the past, his mind can be changed depending on the moment.

Matt Frei: On Ukraine, both candidates have said they would end the war in Ukraine. How would Kamala Harris end the war in Ukraine?

Anne Applebaum: I mean, there’s only one way to end the war in Ukraine, and that’s to win it – or to convince the Russians to stop fighting – and that would require a continued supply of weapons. I mean, Russia doesn’t have an infinite amount of resources. Russia’s already paying North Koreans to fight in Ukraine. So they’re beginning to run out of people and equipment. And I think that’s when the war will end.

Matt Frei: I’m hearing from that building down there, the White House, grumblings about Zelensky not listening to their tactics. They’re not happy with him either.

Anne Applebaum: Look, I mean, I’m not going to get into the argument of the White House and Zelensky. The Ukrainians have made mistakes, I’m sure, and the Americans have made mistakes, too. I think the Ukrainians are very frustrated by the strictures that are put on them, that they’re not allowed to use certain weapons, not allowed to have certain weapons. And they feel that the White House’s obsession with escalation has prevented them from winning.

Matt Frei: Just briefly, the Middle East is another tricky one. They’ve also said they’re going to solve that. Is that a real test of the limits of American power, whoever wins?

Anne Applebaum: I don’t know that it’s about the limits of American power. It’s more about what is America’s ultimate relationship with Israel. I mean, the Middle East is…whereas I think the war in Ukraine has a pretty easy solution – like – Russia leaves and then the war is over. The war in the Middle East has many different facets. There’s an Iranian facet, there’s a Palestinian facet, and it’s not going to end quickly. Many US presidents have spent many years trying to end it. You’ll see real differences, though, between the two if….

Matt Frei: We’ll be watching.