Are the 'hairy beards' in control of Iran?
Lindsey Hilsum writes on whether the “hairy beards” of Iran are really in control of the country at all?
As protestors fill the streets of Tehran again, my favourite slogan so far is: “Freedom of thought won’t happen with hairy beards”! Apparently, it rhymes in Persian.
The hairy beards are still there nonetheless, and President Obama issued another appeal to them today, on the 30th anniversary of the hostage-taking at the US Embassy.
“This event helped set the United States and Iran on a path of sustained suspicion, mistrust, and confrontation,” he said. “I have made it clear that the United States of America wants to move beyond this past, and seeks a relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran based upon mutual interests and mutual respect.”
But that’s looking less and less likely. We tend to report the international dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme and the internal dispute over the elections as if they were totally separate. Analysts often point out that the opposition leaders, including Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, would probably follow a similar, secretive nuclear programme as President Ahmadinejad.
But there is a link, and it’s the pressure the hairy beards are under from all sides. Since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to office in 2004, power has shifted away from the mullahs and to the Revolutionary Guard. They have taken control of many businesses, and are very close to the President. The day after the election in June, when they began to feel that it had been stolen, protestors started to shout “Down with the coup d’etat government!” They meant that the Revolutionary Guard were taking over, at the expense of the hairy beards.
One of the difficult issues for those who try to negotiate with the Islamic government is that there are so many overlapping centres of power, you can never be sure whether you’re dealing with the real decision-makers. The Revolutionary Guards are believed to take the hardest line on the nuclear programme, and have no interest in improving relations with the USA. That may be one reason the negotiations of recent weeks seem to be going round in circles – even if the hairy beards wanted to compromise, their room for manoeuvre is circumscribed. And they’re more divided amongst themselves than ever before.
Last week, the Supreme Leader was addressing a gathering at Sharif University when he was challenged by a maths student called Mahmoud Vahidnia, who harangued him for 20 minutes.
He complained that no-one was allowed to criticise him, that state TV and radio had misreported the demonstrations after the election, and even chastising him for the arrests and beatings protestors have suffered. The live TV broadcast was quickly cut, but the Supreme Leader had no choice but to listen.
Now today, students and others are out on the streets in great numbers, while basiij militia and Revolutionary Guard use violence to try to quell the unrest.
Are the hairy beards in control of all this? I doubt it. They can’t control what people think, and it’s not clear they control what the armed forces do.