When did Blair promise to step down?
Updated on 24 September 2006
Hain and Beckett at odds over that 'full third term'.
The Claim
"Tony Blair said he would not serve a full term through this Parliament."
Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett
"He (Blair) said he was going to serve a full term."
Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Hain
Both talking to Adam Boulton on Sky News, Sunday, 24 September 2006
Background
The soap opera continues.
While Labour outwardly protests it wants its 2006 conference to be about politics rather than personality, the debate over Blair's departure - and his successor - will not go away.
On this occasion the subject was reignited by an Observer poll which found the public was in favour of a snap general election when Blair stands down.
Is this a justified claim by voters?
Margaret Beckett does not think so, because as far as the she is concerned Mr Blair warned the great unwashed that he would not be serving the full prime ministerial stint this time.
Yet just minutes after Beckett made her remarks, up popped Labour colleague Peter Hain to tell the same programme the opposite. So who was right?
Analysis
The crux of the claim is quite simple. Prior to the 2005 general election, did Tony Blair tell the public he was going to do a full third term in office?
Avoiding being precise on this subject has been turned into something of an art-form by Blair and his supporters.
If Tony sets a date, the theory of goes, his critics would only demand he brings it forward - therefore hastening departure.
Such was the pressure earlier this month the PM finally did set a defined timescale for his departure - but he still hasn't set a precise date.
Against such a backdrop it is perhaps understandable two senior Labour MPs would be unclear about exactly when Blair plans to go; and what he told the pre-election public.
Searching for stories on Blair's departure from office is not difficult, finding articles where anything was actually confirmed by no10 is.
Amid all the rumours it appears Blair first truly laid out a schedule for departure in October 2004.
Ending his party's conference in Brighton - as well as dropping the bombshell he was to have heart surgery - Mr Blair said: "If I'm selected I would serve a third term - I do not want to serve a fourth term.
"I don't think the British people want a prime minister to go on that long but I think it's sensible to make plain my intention now."
Pretty clear cut then? Blair said he would do a full third stretch and then walk away. Beckett was wrong to say the public was aware they were getting two prime ministers for the price of one when they voted Labour at the last election.
However, is it any surprise Beckett got her official timings mixed up? After all, the Tories even fought the last election under the slogan 'vote Blair, get Brown' - it was not as if it was a fanciful notion.
The constant tide of speculation - and hitherto acceptance Brown would be the next PM - probably clouded Beckett's recollection still further.
Between Mr Blair's conference announcement and the 2005 general election there were dozens of articles predicting different timings for his departure.
Examples of which were:
- Sunday Mail (December 2004) Tony to quit 18 months after re-election
- News of the World (January 2005) Blair to go when Brown aids membership of the euro
- Mail on Sunday (April 2005) Blair to leave in 2008 in presidential-style departure as ally George W Bush leaves office
- Evening Standard (April 2005) Alan Milburn says Blair will stay as PM until 2009 or 2010
Yet on the last day of campaigning prior to the May poll, Mr Blair cut through the speculation to once more reaffirm his position.
He told BBC presenter John Humphrys: "I can serve a full term."
When Humphrys scoffed that he must stand down at least six to nine months before the following election, expected in 2009 or 2010, Mr Blair reportedly sounded perplexed.
He said: "No - the Labour party rules do not require anything like that. The reason I want to carry on now is because I believe passionately that there are things to do."
FactCheck Rating: 4.5 (for Beckett) (How ratings work)
Verdict
They may have spoken to the same programme just minutes apart, but Beckett and Hain were world's apart when it came to their recollections of what Blair said prior to the general election last year.
Officially, Beckett was wrong - Blair HAD said he would do a full third term.
But it's hardly surprising the Foreign Secretary got her official lines mixed up, Blair's departure well in advance of the next general election has appeared a formality for a long while - even is an actual date still has not been set.
Sources
Blair: I will serve a full third term, The Guardian, 1 October 2004
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