Autumn statement 2013: what to look out for

Making predictions ahead of George Osborne’s speech is something of a cottage industry among accountants, tax lawyers and analysts.

While there’s a fair amount of wild speculation, some key policy moves have already been announced, and others have been widely hinted at by Whitehall officials.

And there is always the possibility will have a big headline-grabbing announcement up his sleeve that no one sees coming.

Here are the safe bets for today’s speech, and some of the other runners and riders.

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Tax break for married couples

David Cameron announced plans to give some married couples a tax break of up to £200 in September, and the chancellor is expected to flesh out some of the details today.

The change will affect about four million married couples and 15,000 civil partners where both people are basic rate taxpayers and one earns less than the personal tax allowance.

Free school meals

Nick Clegg said this was the Lib Dems’ pay-off for agreeing to the move on married couples.

The £600m move to give all infant school pupils in England free school meals was announced earlier this year, but the chancellor is expected to tell us how it will be funded today.

The change could save families just over £400 a year per child.

The Guardian has reported that there could be a big budget shortfall for the project, citing leaks from Whitehall insiders.

Energy bills

The coalition has said it will cut the average fuel bill by £50 by reducing some of the green levies that helped push bills up.

The government will meet the cost directly of some measures currently included in bills, and it will extend the cost of insulating homes over a longer timeframe.

Labour say energy bills will still be about £70 higher than they were a year ago, and none of the saving is coming from the profits of the energy giants.

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Tax avoidance

George Osborne has said the fuel bill giveaway will be funded by extra tax revenue after a crackdown on tax avoidance.

He may reveal more details of the government’s drive to generate billions more in revenue by closing tax avoidance loopholes and preventing illegal tax evasion.

Capital gains tax for foreign property investors

It was widely reported last month that Mr Osborne was considering a change in the rules for foreigners who buy UK property.

The move to tax cash-rich investors from Russia and the Middle East who are snapping up property, particulary in London, could ease fears of a housing market bubble and give the Treasury a significant windfall.

Some tax experts fear a move to make non-resident property owners pay capital gains tax on the sale of second homes here could drive away foreign investment, while others say the move would merely bring Britain in line with the rest of Europe.

Personal tax allowance

The personal allowance – the first chunk of earnings on which workers do not pay any tax – is already set to rise from £9,440 to £10,000 from next April.

The Lib Dems want to raise it to £10,500 before the 2015 general election. Has he struck a deal with the chancellor to bring the move forward, and will we hear about it later?

ISA limit

Leaks suggest Whitehall officials are pondering a lifetime limit on the amount of money savers can invest in tax-free ISAs, with some reports putting the cap as low as £100,000.

Some industry insiders say this is unlikely as returns for the Treasury would be low.

The Telegraph says it understands that peer-to-peer lending websites are to be included in the ISA wrapper for the first time to help boost funding for start-ups.

Pensions

Some insiders including analysts at accountants Baker Tilly think the government is eyeing the tax relief attracted by pensions.

Mr Osborne could introduce a new cap on the tax-free lump sum you can take out of your pension pot when you retire – currently the limit is 25 per cent.

Mansion tax

Liberal Democrat business secretary Vince Cable has been pushing for years for a tax on properties worth at least £2m.

Stamp duty was raised for sales of such properties last year, but the Lib Dems wanted an annual tax, and there is speculation that they might finally get their wish today.

Some insiders are even predicting a lowering of the threshold to £1m.

Stamp duty

Accountants PwC are among the analysts predicting a cut in the stamp duty sales tax, perhaps for properties worth less than half a million pounds.

Mr Osborne is known to be sympathetic to first-time buyers, and property market analysts say a cut could boost the volume of house sales.

But the government said a temporary exemption for first-time buyers in 2011/12 failed to get more people on the property ladder.