Bin Laden's death: Will it make any difference?
Our International Editor, Lindsey Hilsum, asks how much difference the death of Osama bin Laden will make to Al-Qaeda.
Osama bin Laden used to quote the Prophet Mohammed: “I wish I could raid and be slain, and then raid and be slain, and then raid and be slain.”
His version of Islam, with its emphasis on violent jihad and martyrdom, has reached its logical conclusion – he was never going to be taken alive. That would not have been in his interest – nor, for that matter, that of the Americans.
The question now, nearly a decade after the attacks on the Twin Towers, is how much difference does his death make?
After the US-led assault on Afghanistan, bin Laden was dislodged to Pakistan, and Al-Qaeda was decentralised. Today, the most effective branches are Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Al-Qaeda in the Magreb.
Most experts believe that in recent years, Osama bin Laden has been more of a figurehead than an active leader, because US intelligence activities made it so difficult for either him or his deputy, Ayman al Zawahiri, to communicate. It’s notable that the huge house where he was killed by US forces had no internet or telephone.
But his death is unlikely to disable the remaining active branches of Al-Qaeda.
“Because Al-Qaeda’s second-tier leadership manages most of the group’s interaction with its subsidiaries, the removal of either Zawahiri or bin Laden would not overly affect the unity among the organisation’s core, branch and franchises, nor would it impede communication among them,” wrote Leah Farrall, formerly with the Australian police counter-terrorism unit.
Osama bin Laden’s killing has huge symbolic value for President Obama, and may lift his approval ratings amongst American voters. It’s tempting to see it as a bookend to the decade of terror which started on 9/11.
Now, from Egypt to Libya, Syria and beyond, Arab youth are fighting for freedom and democracy, not for an extremist version of Islam.
But it may not be so simple. The problem of Pakistan remains. How was bin Laden able to stay in a house in a town with a military base, just a few miles from Islamabad? Who knew? Who protected him?
And the Taliban will carry on fighting western forces in Afghanistan – their cause remains Islamist, but with more emphasis on nationalism, because of the years of what many Afghans regard as US occupation.
The death of Osama bin Laden is a huge symbolic event, a great boost for a weak US President. But it doesn’t change the world in the way it would have done, had it happened when then President George W Bush vowed to capture the Al-Qaeda leader “dead or alive”.