Burmese elections: time for the UN to act

Yesterday’s elections in Burma proved in every way to be the sham we predicted. Reports emerging from the country already indicate widespread ballot rigging, harassment and intimidation during the polls, and as votes are being counted, we already know what the result will be. The elections will result in no more than a change of clothing for Burma’s dictators, from military uniform to civilian suits.

The regime left the NLD no choice but to boycott this election, and as a consequence the NLD is banned. A process that excludes Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD is by definition illegitimate.

Yet even if yesterday’s poll had turned out to be free and fair on the day, it would still have made no difference. The regime ensured it was all sewn up in advance. Election laws required political parties to expel any prisoners among its members, making it impossible for the major opposition party, National League for Democracy (NLD), to take part. How could the NLD, which overwhelmingly won elections in 1990, abandon Aung San Suu Kyi, the symbol of Burma’s struggle, who has spent more than 15 years under house arrest? The regime left the NLD no choice but to boycott this election, and as a consequence the NLD is banned. A process that excludes Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD is by definition illegitimate.

Media coverage

Even those few pro-democracy candidates who decided to contest the poll were not able to campaign properly. Domestic media coverage was heavily biased towards pro-regime parties, movement was restricted, and the cost of standing as a candidate is more than the average income in Burma. Voting in at least 3,400 villages in ethnic areas was cancelled altogether, disenfranchising as many as 1.5 million people.

Those contesting the election were also required to accept the new constitution, which guarantees the military 25 per cent of the parliamentary seats. The regime’s proxy parties are expected to win the vast majority of the unreserved seats, so even if a few token democrats are elected, they will have no influence. The constitution guarantees the military immunity from prosecution for past, present and future crimes, and offers no meaningful autonomy to the ethnic nationalities. Amending the constitution will be impossible, because to do so requires more than 75 per cent of the parliamentary votes. The military has a built-in lock on amendments.

Before the election, many people predicted that the regime’s process would cause further instability, conflict and suffering in Burma. That prediction came true within hours. Today more than ten thousand Karen civilians have fled across the border into Thailand, to escape fighting between the Burma Army and a faction of the pro-junta Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA). The DKBA has been allied with the Burma Army for the past 15 years, and had agreed to become a Border Guard Force under the Burma Army’s control. However, a faction broke away from the DKBA and refused to join the Border Guard Force. Yesterday, this faction reportedly seized the Friendship Bridge between Myawaddy and the Thai town of Mae Sot, as well as the Myawaddy police station, post office and local township offices, in protest against yesterday’s sham elections and the proposed Border Guard Force.

Troop movements

The Burma Army is reportedly sending large numbers of troops to Myawaddy. There have also been reports of explosions and gunfire and at least 20 civilians injured and three killed. Sources on the Thai-Burmese border are expecting the fighting in Myawaddy to intensify tonight. Fighting has also been reported further south in the Three Pagodas Pass area. It is likely that there will be an escalation of conflict in other parts of the country, particularly Kachin State near the border with China. The Kachin, who have had a ceasfire with the regime since 1994, are resisting pressure to become a regime-controlled Border Guard Force.

How should the international community respond? First, there must be a clear, decisive rejection of the election process. Too often governments have responded to events in Burma with a “wait and see” approach. The time for waiting and seeing is over. We know the result; now is the time for action.
The UN must establish a Commission of Inquiry to investigate crimes against humanity. Tomas Ojea Quintana, the UN’s own Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in Burma, has recommended this, and more than 13 countries – including Australia, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom – have already declared their support. Momentum is growing for this initiative. Since the constitution provides the military with immunity, it is up to the UN to address impunity.

The time for waiting and seeing is over. We know the result; now is the time for action.

Whatever government is formed after yesterday’s elections, it will inherit a political, humanitarian and human rights crisis that cannot be allowed to continue. A new report, Diagnosis: Critical, claims that in eastern Burma over 40 per cent of children suffer from malnutrition, 60 per cent die of preventable disease and one in fourteen women is infected with malaria, one of the highest rates in the world. One in seven children in eastern Burma will die before the age of five. Civilians, including women, children and the elderly, are shot at point-blank range, and some have been beheaded and severely mutilated. Torture, forced labour and rape as a weapon of war are widespread and systematic, villagers are used as human minesweepers and children are forcibly conscripted into the Burma Army. Since 1996, more than 3,500 villages in eastern Burma alone have been destroyed, and more than a million people are internally displaced.

Time for dialogue

Now is the moment for Ban Ki-moon to kick-start an effort to secure a genuine dialogue between the regime, the democracy movement and the ethnic nationalities. It is possible that the regime may release Aung San Suu Kyi this coming weekend, and if that happens we must have a clear response. Her release alone, while welcome, is no measure of real progress. The regime must engage her in a meaningful dialogue.

Real benchmarks of progress include the release of all political prisoners and an end to military offensives against Burma’s ethnic peoples. A first indicator would be to allow in international monitors such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, and permit Aung San Suu Kyi to travel freely around the country, as was the case before the attack on her convoy in Depayin in 2003. The regime must be told clearly that if it meets these benchmarks, sanctions could be lifted, but if it fails to do so and the situation worsens further, sanctions will be tightened, toughened and targeted.
As Britain’s ambassador to Burma – Andrew Heyn – said, these elections are simply the same wine in new bottles. And that wine will get increasingly sour the longer the international community refuses to act. The ball is now in Ban Ki-moon’s court.

Benedict Rogers is a writer and human rights activist working for Christian Solidarity Worldwide based in London. He has visited Burma and its borderlands more than 30 times, and is the author of Than Shwe: Unmasking Burma’s Tyrant (Silkworm Books, 2010).