Don’t bet the farm on peace in Afghanistan

Nobody bombs Paktika. Nobody bombs a small bazaar in a town of no apparent strategic value to any side in Afghanistan‘s war. But someone did.

Not us – said the Afghan Taliban – usually quick to claim and indeed wildly exaggerate their actions across this land. But not this time.

At 10.30am the bazaars of a small town in Paktika Province in the east of the country abutting the Pakistan border, were packed with Ramadan shoppers.

The Toyota 4×4 – certainly the vehicle of choice for the Taliban it has to be said  – was rammed with explosives and the site looks like a major earthquake has struck the town – not an apparently random act of political violence.

By late afternoon the defence ministry says 89 people were confirmed dead but that number seems almost certain to rise in what is the deadliest single attack since 2001 in Afghanistan.

It is precisely the kind of act guaranteed to wipe the gloss of the weekend euphoria as US Secretary of State John Kerry flew in to Kabul to broker a deal between arch-rivals for the Presidency Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. It was all raised handholding for the cameras.

But now the hard work begins with 8m – yes, eight million – votes to be recounted and nobody is totally sure of the agreed methodology or indeed whether either of the rivals will really accept it.

A new job of prime minister with some real power has been created in a nod to unity government. Will that work? Uncharted territory so nobody has a clue.

And with each candidate very much representing different ethnic slices of Afghan society the potential for divisive and even more violent civil war if things break down is obvious.

Increasing violence on the street. Political vacuum at the top. Nato forces running for the door as fast as  they can.

Do not bet the farm upon peace.

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