Ukraine: Minsk is not what matters

Through the night and into the cold, frozen morning of Minsk.

Yes – a piece of paper appears to have been agreed by the presidents of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany and that will be handed on to the Contact Group at Minsk where the pro-Russian rebels are represented.

Yet we are told only to expect separate press conferences for the presidents after a frigid-looking “family photo” last night.

All of this however has a slight air of unreality with rebels going all out for a land-grab as fast as possible with every hour that elapses in these talks.

Read more: One year on: where are the far-right forces of Ukraine?

So whatever emerges from Minsk by way of any ceasefire “agreement” is only diplomatic rhetoric and can only ever be so. The real game is on the steppe of eastern Ukraine where both sides either will or will not silence their guns.

And we have been here before with the Minsk “ceasefire” agreed last September – it led to the most violent few months of a war which has claimed more than 5000 lives.

All the latest signs from Minsk do not look encouraging.

This morning Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said certain conditions set by Russia were unacceptable but there still was hope.

The problems areas are manifold: Putin wants rebels to keep what they’ve seized by force (with his help); large-scale autonomy for the region and immunity for rebel leaders – all major problem areas for Kiev of course.

Poroshenko said there was no good news yet from the talks which take place in a deeply divided atmosphere.

Putin has damaged relations with his biggest EU – Germany -ally to a historic low. Yet Germany and the US (not even at the talks) are divided over arming Ukrainian forces.

For Merkel this goes to her East German roots. She speaks Russian, she won’t arm Kiev under any circumstances.

The US is already putting boots on the snow – military “advisors” helping bed in non-lethal equipment already being supplied to Kiev’s somewhat ragtag army.

Putin knows that division is there and is exploiting it every inch if the way in Minsk.

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