50 is a magic number

It’s a supreme irony that on this day of Whitehall whirlwind, there’s actually been the first hard evidence that the economy might be on the turn.

After the worst recession for at least four decades, one closely followed indicator is suggesting the economy actually grew, in May, for the first time in 14 months

This is all about the purchasing managers’ index for the UK’s service industries, a measure of whether corporate buyers are cutting back or splashing out.

Fifty is the magic number. When the index is above that the economy is normally growing. When its below, that suggests it’s shrinking.

And over the last year the index was well below 50, telling us Britain is in deep recession – until today. The latest figure for May shows a surprise push into positive territory.

As Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, says: “The rise means the UK is the first of the European economies to see a return to economic growth.”

Now there’s still plenty that could knock any recovery off course. The pound has risen strongly in recent weeks, making life tougher for British exporters. The price of oil has risen by about a quarter in the last month alone. And Britain’s banking system is still fragile, uncertain and state-supported

So there may well be a relapse, and unemployment is still rising sharply. But make no mistake, this is the most tangible indication so far, of, yes, green shoots.

It may be too little too late, though, for the precarious position of both Downing Street’s principal inhabitants.