10p tax vote: rebellion seems to be slipping away

There were thunder claps and lightning directly over Westminster as Frank Field was on his feet in the chamber warning of the Labour Party meeting its executioner in May 2010.

Mr Field sounded like a man whose rebellion was slipping away from him and he blamed the government for threatening backbenchers that a defeat on the Finance Bill would bring death, destruction, a Newt Gingrich-style paralysis of government, no public sector pay, no benefits.

As Frank Field said, this is a touch far-fetched. In reality there will be an amendment sitting in a Treasury safe which would allow the government to make up the cost of compensating remaining victims of the abolition of the 10p tax rate.

The House would have to stay up very late to get it done, but it would be done. Where the whips are right is that there is no record of a government with a majority of 60+ losing a vote on a Finance Bill.

It would be an extraordinary moment, a sign of a government not in command. Who can truly know how the markets would react to a government defeat? Right now it’s looking like we won’t find out.