Scottish parliamentary elections: Labour’s to lose?

Am in Scotland to have a look at the Scottish Parliamentary election campaign (our report is on the programme tonight).

Not so many weeks ago, this was Labour’s campaign to lose. And some in the Labour Party think that may be exactly what they are doing.

Labour and the SNP have moved closer together on policy, making this campaign a bit more of a personality contest. That would suit the SNP well as Alex Salmond is way ahead in polls about who Scots want to be their First Minister. Iain Gray, the leader of Scottish Labour, came third behind the leader of the Scottish Tories on this question in an ICM poll.

Labour has for many decades been the political establishment in Scotland, guaranteeing itself in normal years something close to 40% of the vote. The other 60% has more often than not been fractured between SNP, Lib Dems. The SNP though, post the Coalition in London and on the back of a term of minority government that didn’t frighten the horses, is hoping to hoover up enough of the Coalition parties’ votes to sneak back into power.It’s a big challenge, but they have a strong party machine, a leader the voters see as a big figure and a Labour rival in Iain Gray who is, how shall we put this, not a showman. The press gang up here is still laughing at the sight of Mr Gray taking fright from a demonstrator and hiding in a Subway sandwich bar. He then made the mistake of saying he wasn’t frightened as he’d been to the killing fields of Cambodia and post-genocide Rwanda. But it’s hard to know how much wider resonance that moment will have and how many voters will plough through the televised hustings to see Iain Gray’s performance.

Labour still has the capacity to win this contest (although winning in this context means becoming the largest party without an outright majority). They need the Lib Dem vote to firm up a bit (not much sign of that) and they need to get their supporters focused on David Cameron and the Coalition. If they can make the 5 May vote a referendum on the Cameron/Clegg Coalition they can win this. If not, they could be in trouble.

The demonstrator Iain Gray was trying to avoid was actually campaigning against government cuts. But Labour and the SNP have not been talking much at all about them in the campaign. And both parties have committed to free universal goodies like social care and bus passes (now added to with free prescriptions). What follows the election when the new government goes looking for cuts could come as a nasty surprise.