A 50-50 chance Blair’s EU bid folds before Thursday

We are three days shy of the special summit to choose a President and Foreign Policy High Rep and yet Tony Blair is still in the contest.

Does that mean he is in with a serious chance? Is there a big player still pushing for him? I hear not.

The Prime Minister had been minded to hold on to the Blair candidacy and take it all the way to the EU special summit in Brussels in the hope that it might just work and even if it didn’t he would look like he tried… but that plan is now being reconsidered.

The Swedes who hold the EU presidency would like Thursday to be a rubber-stamping meeting with agreement reached beforehand not a barney.

It is “50-50”, I hear, whether the Blair candidacy folds before Thursday.

The odds are still that the EU leaders will (subject to Commission and European Parliament blessing) appoint a non-English speaking former communist from Italy to represent it on foreign affairs and a low-key Belgian Prime Minister as President.

If Mr Blair does let it be known that he is not going for the Presidency, the UK government is NOT expected to magic a high rep. candidate out of the air, even though other countries say they would welcome a UK appointment, but will focus instead on making sure they get one of the big economic European Commission posts.

Some in Brussels think the UK has missed a moment here, but with David Miliband’s refusal to be a candidate the field looked a bit thin (Peter Mandelson busy elsewhere, Baroness Ashton insufficient foreign affairs experience and other figures spoken of like George Robertson didn’t get off the ground).

RELATED: Brown still talking up Blair for EU president

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