24 Jul 2009

A landslide victory without the landslide?

The more you look at the Norwich result the more puzzling it is.

Sea-change political moments require “converts,” or so we’ve always thought.

You can’t build a mighty national majority on the other party’s core vote staying at home, or can you?

Tory strategists claim they got some Labour converts and that the party tallies conceal a lot of churning.

But there is nothing like the switching we saw in the mid 90s to Labour or even what we saw of Labour to Conservative switching in Crewe.

This is a landslide-sized swing without the normal components of a landslide and thoughtful Tories will stare at it long and hard wondering if it foreshadows for a general election when expenses might seem a distant memory.

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