Another independence poll? You can’t be serious!
But we are. This one is different. We have tried to copy as closely as possible the actual Alex Salmond planned referendum – with two questions, posed very much in the way he would plan to put them (we probably have to wait until next week for the precise wording of the independence question and longer still for the wording of the second question, but we know roughly what Alex Salmond wants).
Our poll showed one ballot paper asking do you want maximum devolution just short of independence – Yes or No? Then a second ballot paper asking do you want independence – Yes or No? As I say, we haven’t got the exact wording, but I’m assured we’ve got the spirit and tone of these questions pretty right. As in the SNP plan, there is no separate question for “Do you want the status quo?” – Scotland would merely revert to the status quo if neither of the other two propositions secured over 50 per cent.
Click here to download the findings of the YouGov/Channel 4 News poll
Our poll suggests support breaks 61/39 against independence right now, meaning nationalists would need to achieve a 10 per cent swing in favour of independence to win in autumn 2014, their preferred date. That’s a swing, they say, they achieved in a matter of a few months in the Holyrood elections last year. And they say they detect a lot of uncertainty amongst voters, not least the 16-18 age bracket they would like to enfranchise ahead of the poll.
Support for “devolution max” breaks 58/42 in favour. That’s a sizeable majority and includes 41 per cent of Labour supporters. But some of those Labourites, and many of their leadership, don’t want Alex Salmond’s version of devolution’s next step. They want something less drastic, less designed to take Scotland in the direction of full independence.
But the “devo max” product is developing support and brand awareness before anyone other than the SNP has shaped their own version of it. It’s possible that these early skirmishes over the second question – can SNP opponents strike it off the ballot paper and if they can’t can they shape it closer to their own will? – could define Scotland’s constitutional future.
The other stuff you learn from our poll is how the SNP’s domination of the Scottish political conversation is converting in our snapshot into increased party support for Holyrood and Westminster elections. You also get a flavour of how little appetite there is for the UK government appearing to dictate the terms of the referendum. And the poll suggests the Scots are divided 43/46 in terms of support for a one question (independence or union) versus a two question (independence or devo max) referendum.
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