Are the Tories ‘stuffed’?

A well-known Tory shadow cabinet member just said to me: “I think we’re stuffed – I think they’re going off to Labour.”

I’m not making any such predictions but those words from someone in the cockpit of the Tory machine tell you something about trust levels and optimism.

They may also tell you something about the read-out that was given to the Tories from the Lib Dem meeting of MPs.
 
Talking to the SDLP this morning, I hear that Gordon Brown spoke twice over the weekend to Margaret Mitchie, the leader and newly elected MP. He was sounding her out but not sounding optimistic about a pact. What was on offer was confidence and supply, no SDLP people in a coalition.

Interestingly, the Northern Ireland parties are being told that there would be no side deals with one party or another and Northern Ireland would be dealt with collectively (particularly over the issue of the block grant).

Sinn Fein, who don’t take their seats in Westminster, would therefore not be carved out of any negotiations.

Lib Dem MPs I spoke to furious with Paddy Ashdown’s interview on Radio 4 this morning. It was clearly intended to torpedo the Con-Lib coalition that Nick Clegg was working on. It will have enormous impact.

And as one senior Lib Dem said: “Paddy’s been on manoeuvres for a couple of days, he’s put his uniform back on… He should show Nick the loyalty others showed him.”

It looks as though Nick Clegg, if he wants to stick with the Con-Lib coalition plan, would have to explicitly or implicitly make it a “back me or sack me” issue to have a hope (but not a certainty) of getting it through.