AV not the saviour for the Lib Dems

Went to a briefing this morning run by the excellent Political Studies Association on Assembly/Parliament elections in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

The political scientists there were united in their view that the AV campaign had made virtually no impact in the devolved nations and Northern Ireland. James Mitchell of Strathclyde University thought that it would come as quite a surprise to many Scots to see the extra ballot paper in the bundle on May 5th. One of Nick Clegg’s calculations in pushing for the May 5th date was the hope that the pro-AV campaign would benefit from differential turnout – that voters in the devolved nations and Northern Ireland with more experience of electoral reform would be AV-inclined and would turnout in greater numbers than (more hostile, more Tory) English voters coming out for council polls. The pro-AV campaign will have to make a quantum leap in profile in the weeks ahead if it’s to reap rewards from the May 5th date.

On another note, the BBC’s formidable elections expert David Cowling asked about the Lib Dem vote. There is a longstanding tradition that the Lib Dems claim to get a rise in their vote close to elections because they’ve tended to be under-reported until elections are upon us and the Representation of the People Act kicks requiring broadcasters to put them on air more.This traditionally gives the Lib Dems an “inflator” or late lift in poll share missed in most earlier polls. Now that they are in the news every day, David pointed out, this impact might be no more – what you see, in Lib Dem share of the vote in opinion polls, is what you get.

Look at the TV today and you might think the Lib Dems are playing the old game – Nick Clegg is everywhere. If you watch 24 hours news channels you couldn’t really avoid him from 7am to 2pm. But could there even be a Lib Dem “deflator” effect now? Should the party consider playing down its coverage in the run up to elections?

By the way, Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University said he thought the signs were that the Lib Dems in the Welsh Assembly elections were facing “wipe-out.”

Channel 4 News extensive coverage of the AV debate so far can be found here.