8 Dec 2011

‘Britain faces a moment of truth soon – in or out’ – source

Am in Brussels. After the battering the last European Union summit received, I expected to find the euro true-believers a little weary or disconsolate. But a European Commission source told me that the view here is very much that the treaty changes will come (whether it’s a treaty of the 27, 17+ or 17) and the 17 will forge a tighter union.

In time, they will be joined by just about all the other members of the EU leaving Britain out in the cold. The expanding eurozone would inevitably act more and more like a block and Britain would feel more and more excluded.

“Britain will have to confront some tough choices it has dodged for too long,” I was told.

It would be easy for the other EU countries in negotiations tonight to concede to David Cameron his demand that there must be no single market within the single market, I was told. Likewise easy to grant Mr Cameron his demands for transparency about eurozone meetings so the “outs” don’t feel excluded. But, my source said: “Can you imagine, the eurozone countries in the room, planning how to get growth, discussing policies and then suddenly thinking ‘oh dear – we must see what Britain thinks about this?'”

This “true believer” view suggests that the eurozone saga is going to fast-track integration… and fast-track the two-speed Europe so many have wanted to avoid. What the true believers here still argue is that the momentum to join the euro is still there and that outer tier of Europe is going to get very lonely much quicker than Britain thinks. You get a lot of determinism here and it may never happen but you get a lot of determination too.

Back at the Feltham by-election before he caught the train out here, David Cameron was still eulogising about Britain’s happy position – one foot in the EU but no feet in the euro.

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