By-election headache for Cameron as Tory MP defects to Ukip

Senior Tories were thrilled to see Ukip disappearing from the media not long after the European Elections.

They know that Ukip performance in the polls is closely correlated to public profile.

A by-election circus at the Essex seaside gives them another sustained burst of publicity with the distinct possibility of a triumphant ending for the insurgents.

It’s not Ukip’s first Tory MP defection. They picked up Bob Spink the Conservative MP for Castle Point in 2008.

He failed to hold on to the seat when he fought against the Tories in 2010 (standing as a “Save our Green Belt” candidate but without any Ukip opposition).

There’s always been an overlap with Douglas Carswell‘s “Better Off Out” views on the EU and the UKIP policy.

What he emphasised in his press conference in Westminster was his longstanding passion for mass democracy – he’s spoken and written for years about harnessing new technology to get voters more involved in a democratic system which he argues is atrophying.

Read more: Tory MP Douglas Carswell defects to Ukip

Mr Carswell was one of many Tories who fundamentally disagree with David Cameron on one of the most central questions of Britain’s role in the world – membership of the EU – but were willing to support the PM (were bought off some might argue) by the promise of an in/out referendum in 2017 which they hope will comprehensively reject their leader’s judgement and choose “out.”

For Mr Carswell, the inherent awkwardness of that pact just couldn’t hold.

One of the big questions, which Mr Carswell didn’t want to be drawn on when I asked him at the press conference, was whether his departure foreshadowed a bigger split in the Tory ranks. Many think it might.

.. @DouglasCarswell , a Tory MP who I have immense respect for has defected to @UKIP and triggers a by-election #whonextmewonders

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) August 28, 2014

Mr Carswell said he quite liked David Cameron and there was nothing personal in the decision to quit – Mr Cameron did once, Flashman-style, put him down in the Commons chamber.

He said he was glad to be sitting next to a leader he agreed with. Nigel Farage joked that it was early days.

As for Mr Carswell’s chances of winning – read this analysis from May this year.

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