EU referendum – the battle edges closer
David Cameron hopes he will squeeze in chats with those of the 27 other EU leaders he hasn’t met ahead of the dinner tonight when he formally launches the renegotiation effort that then dives into discreet contacts on detailed proposals between officials.
He knows his fellow leaders are pre-occupied with other immediate problems and won’t take up too much of their time with what is a milestone not a spectacle at dinner tonight.
But those mighty struggles that the EU is wrestling with today – Greece and migration – go to the heart of the “out” campaigners best hopes of winning.
Talk to people at the heart of the efforts to coordinate an “out” campaign and they’ll tell you two massive factors have assisted their cause since the Blair years when many of the same people came together to try to fight off Tony Blair’s (sometimes forgotten) passions for joining the UK up to the Euro.
Back then, they say, pre-Greece, the European Union was the shiny Mercedes Benz in the neighbour’s drive, a plausible sell as a better place, a modern, progressive dream realised. Greece and the wider fall-out of the banking crash – stagnant economies etc – has destroyed that advantage for the “in” side.
The other big change since the battle over whether the UK should join the Euro is that immigration has become a massive issue and in the UK a toxic one. It drove UKIP to its near 4 million vote and, “no” campaigners say, it could drive a “no” vote to success.
The “no” team acknowledge they would have to neutralise the economic argument renewed by a letter from business folk including Richard Branson to the PM today warning him against British exit. And that is no small ask.
But if they could do that, the “no” team believes it could defy the current polls. Some polling conducted behind the scenes has suggested that the “in” side’s support can be very soft when subjected to the sort of “no” messages that a referendum campaign would bring.
Another big change though since the Blair push for the Euro is that the world has become a more fearful place. The blow-torch of fear applied to voters by the Tories’ election campaign, likewise in the Scottish referendum campaign, showed some brutal effectiveness. Voters may feel there has never been a better moment for holding on to the status quo. The “no” side will not be united in what the alternative set-up is – Switzerland, Norway, a new model?
Ask EU country diplomats what they’re telling their foreign offices about the state of play in the referendum battle in the UK and you regularly hear they are reporting back that it is “getting better” or “looking better” for David Cameron and the “in” side. That in itself may not be terribly helpful optics for the negotiation Mr Cameron is kicking off in Brussels tonight. Those same diplomats also report back that the Europe issue didn’t dominate the UK election that he claims mandates his re-think of the UK relationships with Europe.
The shiny, top of the range Mercedes Benz limo’s that deliver EU heads of government to this 2-day summit are no longer the image of Europe. It’s got an altogether more battered image right now and that is crystallised in the rest of the agenda that will dominate their talks here today and tomorrow.