EU sanctions and empty shop window
Yesterday, President Obama announced he’d signed an executive order that would allow him to start economic sanctions against Russia, including hits on specific sectors: energy, engineering, metals and mining and financial services.
Late into last night, David Cameron was trying to get EU partners to sign up to something along similar lines. But just about every other country in the room last night disagreed. They didn’t want to start being specific about sectors until they knew how much hurting Russia would hurt them. So the European Commission carries on its work of looking into what the EU might do without advertising the subject headings.
This push was known in US/UK diplomatic chat as the “shop window”. The idea is that the credibility of sanctions threats must be tangible for Vladimir Putin. Others call it “showing him the instruments of torture”. Well, some countries in the room last night didn’t want to show so much as a tickling stick.
We’re told the really important stuff at this summit is the signing today of the association agreement with Ukraine – it’s half of the package that was on the table in November and which Yanukovych walked away from, triggering the demonstrations and everything that followed in Ukraine. The EU also brought forward by a couple of months similar agreements to be signed with Moldova and Georgia.
What do these agreements actually mean? EU sources say it’s all about “spheres of influence”, hurting Putin where he’s most sensitive, bringing client states under western influence, loosening their ties to Russia. But how serious is this embrace? What does an association agreement actually mean if Russia can annex part of a country that nearly got one four months ago and all the EU does in direct retaliation is add 12 new names of individuals to a travel ban/asset freeze? Some sphere, some influence, some protection?
Ask EU sources exactly what an association agreement means in practical everyday terms and they describe it as a “bit like the single market but you don’t have to adopt all the rules.” I can see scores of Tory MPs salivating at that and maybe submitting it as an idea to David Cameron’s renegotiation plans.
At his press conference overnight President Hollande sounded like he’d be signing the association agreement with his fingers crossed behind his back: “We are now at the stage of association and the signature is only a partial one. I always thought Ukraine should be associated with the European Union but should not demand to be a member of the European Union.” Some eastern European countries strongly disagree.
By the way, if you’re wondering why the EU hasn’t taken the step of moving towards an arms embargo with Russia, it’s because it’s taken the view it can’t do something that disproportionately hurts one country. France’s order of two helicopter carriers for the Russian fleet is apparently a non-negotiable.
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