25 Mar 2010

Eurozone deal over Greek debt crisis

We now have a draft statement from the French and the Germans which is about to be put to the other Eurozone countries.

The statement answers some of the questions that were being howled out before this summit – there will be a role for the IMF and the Eurozone countries will contribute to a whip-round to help Greece if needed.

Quite what the IMF role will be is not spelt out and you can’t help thinking that the folk in Washington will have strong views about protecting their “brand” and not letting the Eurozone folk run the show.

As for the whip-round, some Eurozone folk may be excused a contribution to any emergency loan but they will be in the minority.

Even those who are very hard pressed and can’t afford to give the money will, if necessary, get loans themselves to lend on, credibility is at stake here for the whole zone and individual countries.

When these “mechanisms” are “activated,” in the language of the communiqué, when Greece is thought to be in need of emergency aid, is not resolved.

Neither is there German pressure for a tougher new regime within Europe to make sure countries don’t go down the Greek route again … that’s been punted off to a future summit before the end of 2010.

So they’ve arrived at a place virtually none of them originally countenanced, wanting the IMF to come in and be part of a rescue package for Greece if it’s needed.

After the Eurozone meeting the outsiders, like Gordon Brown, will be briefed on all this over dinner, perhaps feeling a little smug that they’re not having to cough up for any bailout.

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