A three-line whip, but can the PM ride two Euro horses?
James Wharton’s decision to pick up the government referendum bill and make it his private member bill is another episode in the saga but we are not even at the end of the beginning on this one.
Conservative whips have said there will be a three line whip for Tory MPs on 5 July when it is first debated. That means it is guaranteed Second Reading, the first hurdle.
It will then go into committee for detailed discussion, and the problems come on Third Reading in the Commons. That’s when it could easily be talked out.
Fair to say that the expertise in talking out these bills normally resides on the very benches of the Tory Party most wedded to a referendum but I suspect others can pick up the skills quite quickly.
Where does all this leave what No. 10 is inviting us to believe is a seamless unifying strategy that unites David Cameron and Peter Bone?
Tory MPs are already asking the prime minister to apply massive pressure to Nick Clegg to cave in to their demands – some want the PM to make a coalition walk-out ultimatum, daring the DPM to leave the coalition.
No. 10 is trying to get on top of the game more – hence the whips’ message to MPs about the whipping, trying to answer a question before its asked – but there are some demands it’s hard to see them taking ownership of themselves!
Then, lurking not far off, is the grizzly moment when the debate turns from process to substance: what exactly is the renegotiation about and what are David Cameron’s bottom lines? It was brought up in the 1922 Committee meeting of backbench MPs last night. You can read a very good account of where this might all go here in today’s Spectator.
On the plus side, David Cameron might be cheered by The Guardian front page story which reports “leading politicians” in Germany (for which, I think you can read Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Schauble) desperately wanting Britain to stay in the EU.
No. 10 would be inclined to strip out the stuff about how it would be a disaster for the UK to leave and focus on how it would be disastrous for Germany and how that increases the UK’s negotiating power in any possible future reconfiguration on Europe.
David Cameron will want to look like he can ride two horses in the coming months.
He’ll want to signal to his backbenchers that he’s serious about shaking up Europe but also be seen as a central player in Europe who hasn’t lost his influence through his strategy. Chancellor Merkel has already shown that she’s willing to help on this with the imagery of the joint meeting they held at her country retreat a few weeks ago.
On Wednesday in Brussels at the one day mini-summit he could meet up with President Hollande and Italy’s new Prime Minister, somewhat less supportive of his project.
One point that David Cameron and some of his more euro-sceptic backbenchers will take some comfort from is the thought that next year’s European Parliament elections won’t just see a euro-phobic surge in the UK – with support for Ukip potentially putting them top of the poll. The same thing could happen in some other EU countries encouraging, you hear Tory MPs speculate, leading other EU countries to think they maybe should engage with the UK Conservative official policy of decentralising the EU.
(Although it’s worth saying that a growing number of David Cameron’s backbenchers have given up on renegotiation before it’s even started and just want out.)
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