G8 – and then there were 7
Russia said it hoped its presidency of the G8 would bring a focus on regional conflict and nobody could argue they haven’t done that. It’s slogan for its presidency, by the way, was “risk management … in a safer world”.
Today’s gathering of world leaders in the Hague to discuss nuclear safety will have an impromptu G7 gathering on its margins and it’s expected to suspend Russia from the club. They’re not abandoning the G8 for all time (it came into existence at the 1998 Birmingham summit when Boris Yeltsin came along as a full member of the gang for the first time) but they’re signalling that they’re ready to do just that if Vladimir Putin doesn’t start adhering to some international norms.
Hard to imagine he’ll be too shocked or disheartened, even if he was already cheesed off that world leaders hadn’t come to the Olympic Games in enough numbers.
The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, gives Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov a mighty friendly greeting when he turns up at the nuclear summit. There’s a double hand-shake, special warm words … have a look at this interactive map on various European countries’ exposure to the Russian economy and you’ll see the Netherlands foreign direct investment is particularly high.
As President Xi and others sat round the plenary table in the Hague to discuss nuclear security the Dutch dimmed the lights and put on a glossy film/music/dance experience that ended with footage of Premier Rutte cycling through a square with a glowing baton in his hand as dancers ran round the leaders’ talks table waving their arms. Alas, the coverage didn’t show President Xi’s reaction.
Chancellor Merkel is said to be at the forefront of leaders trying to make sure Vladimir Putin is left in no doubt what is thought of him post annexation of Crimea. From last week, I recommend this account of her epiphany on Putin by a correspondent extremely well-connected in Berlin.
Der Spiegel says Chancellor Merkel sometimes “watches recordings of Putin’s television appearances … studies his body language and listens closely to the original Russian”. It also says Chancellor Merkel has concluded that President Putin’s early admiration for the west evaporated after Iraq, Afghanistan, “unrepentant relativism … and the vulnerability it showed in the financial crisis”.
Another quick read from last week worth a look. Diplomats talk of how the association agreement with Ukraine gives them “leverage” with Putin as he’ll think Ukraine wants to resume its journey into Europe’s sphere of influence. But “leverage” suggests a means to a greater end not an end in itself. Just how committed to Ukraine is a Europe that won’t consider EU membership as a destination (or Nato either)?
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