How big is the opinion poll lead?

Can’t find anyone down here in Brighton at the Tory Spring Conference who believes that the Conservative lead has shrunk to 2 per cent, as suggested by the YouGov/Sunday Times poll.

Shadow Cabinet doesn’t buy it. Neither do the activists I have spoken to. And one Labour strategist said to me: “It’s probably a bit too close, we’re thinking it’s 5 or 6 per cent … We’ve got momentum but not that much.”

Here the shadow cabinet is staging a beauty pageant parade on to the platform, there are warm-up videos and a William Hague introduction, then we’ll get 30-40 minutes of unscripted (but much rehearsed) speech from the leader and the question at the heart of it will be “do you really want five more years of Gordon Brown?”