How much direction of travel will Osborne give on tax?
The “quad” met for about an hour to discuss how to present the budget. Until recently, this was going to be about how much the Lib Dems would let George Osborne promise on the future direction of policy on the top level of income tax. It looks like the 50p rate for those on over £150k becomes the 45p rate as of next spring.
But after a few days of watching the reaction to the reduction of the 50p rate, Mr Osborne and the PM may be having second thoughts about how hard he should go on promising its complete abolition, reverting to the 40p rate as the top rate, some time before 2015. Abolition might be music to some Tory ears but the wider country might think it’s a little discordant. The wording might yet still be hardened up but as of this moment I get the impression it’s not very strong.
On child benefit, George Osborne has taken a lot of convincing that his changes, abolishing it for any household where one earner gets above the 40p tax rate. That might well mean that his ameliorative measures don’t go as far as many Tories would like. In general, you find Tory backbenchers are a lot more restless than Lib Dem ones as we approach the budget.
If you expect Lib Dem MPs to be unimpressed or angry about their leadership letting the Tories kill off the 50p rate for insufficient reward that’s not how it feels chatting to them today. The parliamentary party (generally speaking) holds together better than you might expect. It meets every week when parliament is sitting and the leadership chats to the MPs about what’s coming up, sounding them out and binding them in.
Compare that with slightly shakier attempts to keep Tory backbench MPs in touch. The PM was supposed to be talking to the Tory backbenchers tonight for an end of term session and some were looking forward to getting in some comments on what they’d like to hear in the budget. But he’s decided to see them Wednesday night instead, with George Osborne beside him, just after the budget’s been delivered. One Tory MP said it was “typical,” that the measures already leaked were “ghastly” and there were quite a few Tory MPs thinking that losing your marginal seat in 2015 wouldn’t be so bad as you “don’t get to be much of a Tory” under David Cameron.
What strikes you chatting to Tory MPs though is that they have very differing ideas about what being a Tory means. Some are outraged at the 50p going – “you can’t defend it in a seat like mine,” one Midlands MP said. Others are fervently pro abolition of the 50p and want it done away with completely and immediately.
Follow @GaryGibbonBlog on Twitter.