Maria Miller – ‘under review’
Things are not looking great for Maria Miller. One government source put her chances of surviving the week “no better than 60 per cent” and her chances of surviving a post-Euro elections reshuffle “virtually nil”.
I wrote before about how Maria Miller felt traduced by the independent parliamentary commissioner recommending that she pay back £44,000 of mortgage interest claimed because it was above the purchase price of the property. Maria Miller argued that the relevant bit of extra mortgage was extended before she became an MP and was to do up a house that needed a lot of work – turning bedsits into a family home.
MPs agreed with Maria Miller that she should not be penalised over a cash-rich MP who might’ve been able to afford a more expensive, completely modernised home and didn’t need to extend the mortgage for improvements.
For good measure, the parliamentary commissioner suggested Maria Miller should’ve cut back her claims by 2/7 because two of the people living in the house were her parents (albeit they were being looked after by Maria Miller in an arrangement that pre-dated her election as an MP).
Again, MPs decided that was a severe interpretation of the rules in operation at the time and took issue with the commissioner.
The problems for Maria Miller are manifold:
(1) She should’ve cooperated with the commissioner’s inquiry and allowed the commissioner to go wherever she felt the evidence led her.
(2) She should’ve shown more contrition in her all too brief apology in the Commons which sounded to many like a truculent teenager.
(3) MPs are not rushing to the microphones to defend her – in part, because the whole topic is toxic for everyone
(4) but also because she is not the most popular minister in the government with colleagues.
(5) She saw the post-Leveson royal charter through parliament, which newspapers on the whole reviled.
(6) She saw the same sex marriage legislation through parliament, which the same newspapers reviled.
(7) Newspapers fancy a win and a “scalp”.
(8) Tories worry that the “not one of us,” “don’t understand ordinary people” narrative will gain ground. One Tory member of the government claimed “Lynton’s got his eye on this”.
(9) Ministers worry that a pattern of stories that cast Tories in a bad light could be developing – Mark Menzies’ resignation as a PPS and some court cases.
(10) David Cameron thinks what saved his bacon during the 2009 expenses saga was staying ahead of public opinion, summarily executing colleagues and even saying saying MPs “should subject (themselves) to the Daily Mail test which is how would this look on the front page of the Daily Mail, to which the answer is not very good”. He does not want to be the wrong side of public opinion.
(11) Pre-2010 intake MPs hate every minute of this saga. Many viewed the expenses saga as the worst moment in their public life, a saga from which politics has yet to recover and a low to which it could all too easily fall again with the help of a gleeful press.
(12) Grey suits in the Tory party are said to be hearing anger from constituents, to be worrying that this will impact on Tory support in the May elections … they will meet Mr Cameron ahead of his appearance in front of Tory backbenchers at the 1922 Committee on Wednesday.
On her side, a shorter list:
(1) David Cameron will not want to be seen as weak and being pushed around by newspapers who may feel emboldened to try picking off another minister when they’ve finished with Maria Miller.
(2) David Cameron may feel residual loyalty to her for seeing through the royal charter (and same sex marriage) and won’t want his authority in the party to be challenged when his chief strategist thinks one of his best cards at the election is being seen as a “strong leader”.
One government source said the party leadership was keeping her position “under review”.
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