Mrs May goes to Washington
So Theresa May has one more hot topic to handle or dodge in her conversation with President Trump. Just as her plane takes off for the US the headlines are all about how Donald Trump told ABC News that he was a believer in the use of torture. He didn’t commit to reintroducing it and said he’d take advice from his new CIA chief and his Defense Secretary. Theresa May will probably want to weigh in through them in this debate rather than go into a discussion with the President on this. But if the Trump Administration did reintroduce water-boarding and other practices outlawed under President Obama some argue it could have serious effects on intelligence relations with the UK (and other allies, Canada, New Zealand and Australia). Here’s the UK government guidance issued 5 years ago – note points 6 and 7
Congress would have a say on this too and it’s to Congressional Republicans that Theresa May makes her first address in Philadelphia on arrival in the US. They are on an annual “retreat,” the President could pop in too. Senior Whitehall officials have spoken of Republicans as potential allies in the daunting task of keeping President Trump out of geo-strategic trouble. Many of them didn’t want Donald Trump to win the presidency, many are deeply uneasy with his views, his team, everything about the man.
That team has been much under the spotlight in Whitehall before this trip happens. A memo from Washington with an account of a meeting with Jared Kushner, has been doing the rounds amongst officials in London. The President’s son-in-law is widely seen as the most influential individual in the White House as the presidency starts – these things can change, of course. In a meeting with the UK’s ambassador he’s recorded as having attacked UK opposition to Israeli settlement building in the West Bank and Jerusalem vehemently and repeatedly. The memo emphasises how often and strongly Mr Kushner returned to the subject in the meeting. Theresa May won’t want to go down fruitless avenues of difference for too long in her discussions. But President Trump’s favourite son might.
I asked one source who’d been in to brief Theresa May’s team what he thought they were most worried about. “Her and how she’ll cope with him,” came the response. That tells you a little bit about self-perception in her closest team and the confusing hierarchy at the top.
As part of the preparations for this trip Theresa May’s joint chiefs of staff visited Trump Tower jointly with the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, for lengthy talks with Team Trump before Christmas.
We can expect an invitation to Donald Trump to visit the UK this summer to be formally passed on. One who knows the president has fed in that he loves to be the first person to do things, hence the idea of a golf game at Balmoral being aired. It’s not clear the idea of pursuing a joint address to both Houses of Parliament will go ahead. It’s been done by others, isn’t exactly his strong point and could open up the possibility of a walk-out or protest of some kind.
And we can expect a grand unveiling of a plan to do a UK/US trade deal. Both sides are tempted to push the EU’s tolerance of this to see how far they can get to “pencil” agreements before the EU says it’s a breach of the UK’s membership rules. But the biggest problem could be the staffing and content of these talks not the EU opposition to them. Can the UK sign up to US product standards and food standards? Will the US be up for anything else? Who would adjudicate on the trade deal?
Everyone, her advisers included, will be wondering how the massive gulf of personality between these two lead characters will be bridged. Mrs May’s instincts, and those of her two most senior advisers, was to oppose Donald Trump’s candidacy and they all did that publicly.
Theresa May ponders long and hard before making a decision, often asks for more papers. It’s one of the similarities sometimes pointed to between her style and that of another clergyman’s offspring who was PM, Gordon Brown.
Donald Trump says what comes into his head and what he thinks will please his supporters. “Policy,” one senior official said, “is way down his list of priorities, maybe fifth after tweeting, campaigning, tweeting and campaigning.”
The prize of being first through the door has been grabbed in full knowledge that the rest of the world is waiting and measuring before even trying to march to President Trump’s side. Some countries, indeed, think the UK is acting with indecent and rather desperate haste to cosy up to the new US President.
You might have thought that “Hug them close,” the perpetual mantra of UK administrations on US/UK relations, was tested to destruction in the Blair/Bush relationship. It’s about to go into another crash test procedure.
You can feel the tensions in the words Theresa May will speak in Philadelphia this evening, released overnight. There’s a warmth to the new President, talk of joint ventures as his Presidency and the Brexit mission kick off in parallels. There’s a wariness about the challenges of the world and the need to take them seriously not glibly. Which voice the president hears and whether he listens we will find out over time.