‘No nosebleeds’ says Alex Salmond, but many headaches ahead

Alex Salmond has announced his consultation paper on the referendum.  Mr Salmond said earlier that if “maximum devolution” had support in the country it would be “only fair and democratic” to put it on the ballot paper. But his consultation paper makes clear he’s only thinking of a question “on the lines of devolution max.” It says the SNP will put that question on the ballot paper “if there is sufficient support” but I assume it is the SNP government that will decide if there is sufficient support.

There have been some concessions in this process from the SNP already. The Electoral Commission can report to the SNP government on whether it advises the referendum is kosher.

The SNP doesn’t give the impression of thinking it has  a watertight case for having a referendum on independence as worded in the draft ballot paper it has produced.  The document does say it is “clearly within the existing powers of the Scottish Parliament” to poll on devolution extension, but only that it has “much independent legal opinion” that supports its view that this independence referendum as drafted would be would be legal if Holyrood acted alone.

You could easily imagine the Scottish Government giving way on Saturday voting and a younger franchise.

What Salmond’s strategists won’t want to give way on is the second question – the option of “devo max.” It gives them a fantastic safety net if independence doesn’t pass. The party could be in for a torrid time internally  if independence failed badly with no consolation prize. Devo Max looks to some like something devised to be instable, to tilt into independence at the first disputed deployment of shared armed forces or international diplomatic controversy.

Some in the SNP government might even prefer no referendum at all in this term of office and a Supreme Court challenge to build up resentment against London and its dominating ways. They could then, if re-elected, hold the referendun when there’s a potential Tory majority government in Westminster and still more for some Scottish voters to dislike about the Union.

Now in the Great Hall of Edinburgh Castle Alex Salmond is taking questions from the international media as the wind racks the building. He said there had been no blood spilled in the modern phase of Scottish nationalism – “not so much as a nose bleed” he said.

He said there would be no Eurozone-style mis-match between Scotland and England if they shared sterling. He said he didn’t think London would stop Scotland having the pound. He said he would know if there was sufficient support for Devo Max going on the ballot paper and would recognise it like an elephant. He said he didn’t believe Spain would be hostile to an independent Scotland joining the EU.

For good measure, he mocked the PM’s pronounciaton of Burns at Question Time.

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