PM to invoke Article 50 before end of March – but then what?
Theresa May has given herself a little more leeway on starting the Brexit negotiations with the EU partners. She’s also asked the rest of the EU for a bit more help. Maybe one is to be traded for the other. Maybe the workload on Brexit has been reassessed.
Whitehall sources indicated that Mrs May suggested to EU figures including Chancellor Merkel that she intended to invoke Article 50 of the treaties, formally commencing exit talks, before the start of March. Mrs May told Marr on BBC1 this morning that she intended to start those talks before the end of March.
She also used the interview to ask for “preparatory work” from the EU partners having got a tight-lipped shake of the head so far when she has asked for this in private. The EU leaders are sticking to the line that it’s up to Britain to say what relationship it so desperately wanted outside the EU. Mrs May wants to know her opening gambit won’t be laughed off the table.
The Sunday papers were gifted the line that the PM will ask Parliament to pre-authorise Brexit before the negotiations have really got anywhere. Mrs May wants the repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act to be passed early, ready to take effect once the negotiations are finished. Some will see this as agreeing to hand back the keys and change the locks on the family home before anything’s been decided about the details of the divorce settlement. Mrs May says it’s all about making sure the population feels politicians are carrying out their wishes. Some will wonder if it’s not a piece of theatre to please pro-Brexit Tories and to distract from the lack of progress on the meat of what Brexit means.
The timing of the Article 50 decision means Parliament would have a year from April 2019 to the general election booked for May 2020 to start repealing individual bits of EU law that might just be crowd pleasers with the voters.
Theresa May emphasised that voters who supported Leave in the referendum wanted control over EU immigration in the same way they have control over immigration for non-EU citizens. I think that particular argument needs a little unpacking. Many voters who supported Leave were stirred to do so by the very particular anti-migration campaigns of Leave.eu and Vote Leave. There were a lot of voters, many would argue they were the ones who made the difference, who wanted an end to immigration or something as near as possible to that. They didn’t want the UK to conduct controls along the same lines (to their minds utterly ineffectual) as the non-EU controls. They wanted something more drastic. Mrs May knows she’d pay a heavy price on a number of levels if she delivered what they truly want. Even “some control” looks like it will extract an economic price in Brexit negotiations.
In The Sunday Times, Theresa May ruled out a general election before 2020. Andrew Marr will be one of many not ready to believe that until it happens. He asked if MPs trying to frustrate the repeal of the European Communities Act might be the casus belli for an early general election.