Poll: only 1 in 5 say Cameron would be change for better

We have a poll of the marginals tonight on Channel 4 News that confirms the Tory claim that they think they are doing 2 per cent better in these key seats.

YouGov polled nearly 3,500 people in marginals where Labour holds a 6 to14 per cent majority (roughly around 2,500-7,000 majorities) over the Conservatives. 

It suggests a swing of 6.5 per cent from Labour to Conservative in these marginals compared with 4.5 per cent in the national polls at the moment.

You can see Peter Kellner’s analysis of it here – he says it translates to a Conservative minority government, 11 short of a majority.  (Conservative: 315; Labour: 254; Lib Dem: 50; others: 31.)

The 2 per cent advantage in the marginals – whether thanks to Ashcroft money or not – is there, according to our poll.

But as the base line, the national swing, dips, the advantage in the marginals comes down in parallel. For the Tories to get a majority, that 2 per cent marginals advantage needs to build on top of a better national swing than they are getting at the moment. 

Interesting stuff in the poll on why these voters are holding back from the Tories (we polled the same seats three times in 2008-9 and you can see the results here). David Cameron isn’t outstripping Gordon Brown by nearly as much as he was in the popularity stakes. People are nervous of the “cut public spending now” line (36 per cent say cut now, 46 per cent say either not now or never).

They favour Gordon Brown over David Cameron to run things in “current economic difficulties,” by 31 to 28. Tory strategists keep telling us that the country is ready for “change,” and they’ve invested a lot in the slogan.

But it emerged at the Tory Spring Forum in Brighton that many voters don’t know what David Cameron means by change, what change he’d bring. It’s not the “open sesame” buzzword that it was for Barack Obama.

Our poll suggests that 22 per cent thought David Cameron in No. 10 meant change for the better, while 70 per cent said David Cameron in No. 10 would mean either change for the worse or no change. You can see the whole poll here.