Prepare for Franco-British inactivity on Syria

Syria is already being talked up as a central topic at the Anglo-French summit between David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy on Friday. Can the old duo revive their Libya double-act? To which the answer is: forget it.

There will be much talk of standing ready to assist Arab League initiatives, “contact groups” and concern and condemnation, but little chance of action. France and the UK don’t want to be accused of hypocrisy but see the the Syrian opposition as more fragmented than the Libyan opposition and the Syrian armed state as a much harder nut to crack.

So you can expect them to promise to keep up the pressure and maybe even to promise support for any major piece of Arab League intervention on the ground… safe in the knowledge that there won’t be one, not one that requires a UN Security Council motion anyway, as that would require Russia and China to waive their vetoes.

Tomorrow night could be when President Sarkozy formally declares his candidacy for the presidential elections, and his readiness for one of the most difficult re-election fights a sitting French President has ever faced. David Cameron is still hoping for a Sarko victory. He is, after all, still probably the most Nato-facing and US-facing French president ever.

President Sarkozy may well have torpedoed David Cameron at the EU summit in December 2011, but a Socialist President Francois Hollande could be a lot worse from David Cameron’s perspective.

Mr Cameron will not be joining Chancellor Merkel on any kind of pro-Sarkozy campaign trail. Angela Merkel has already signalled that she wants her nemesis re-elected (not least presumably because the alternative threatens to unpick much of the Eurozone rescue plan).

I wonder if that’ll be the last external European interference in France’s elections we see? Given how bold European leaders have been in unseating undesirable elected political leaders in Greece and Italy, nobbling a candidate who hasn’t yet won an election would presumably be considered well within the realm of acceptable behaviour.