Will Salmond lay down ‘red lines’ on Scottish independence?
The “no” camp is now convinced that the first minister is going to say he has “red lines” in his post-referendum negotiations which will not be crossed, the most important one being that an independent Scotland would form a currency union with the UK.
That’s something George Osborne speculated earlier this year that many English might block. It’s something the Welsh first minister told an audience in Scotland yesterday would be a tardy contraption for dealing with emergencies like the banking crisis.
The no camp is pretty clear that currency union would be a matter for (tricky) negotiation. The yes camp appears to be getting close to saying it is a non-negotiable.
If the wily old tactician, Alex Salmond (pictured above), does go down the route of “red lines” rhetoric, he’ll be hoping it adds welly to his post yes vote demands in negotiations with the UK – the Scots voted not only yes, but for this specific mandate. But the yes camp will be hoping that it is more immediately and pertinently a clever way of de-risking this referendum still more in the search for floating voters who might just make the leap.
The big de-risking so far has been over the political offer – keeping the monarchy, having an energy union etc. If Alex Salmond imposed red lines on his own post-referendum negotiations, he would be saying to those voters who’ve clearly got the jitters about what happens to their currency: “Don’t worry, if we don’t get what we want in the negotiations we’ll walk away from the table.”
Quite what would happen then as a country mandated to go independent collapsed the treaty negotiations isn’t quite clear, but the limbo would not suit anyone and some sort of resolution would be sought.
The “no” camp is getting ready to fire back that Alex Salmond is trying to create false certainty about a leap in the dark. Alex Salmond will be hoping Tuesday lures the undecideds and flakey elements of the “no” vote his way. A lot could depend on how voters think the two sides’ arguments are stacking up by the end of next week.
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