Scotland’s ‘yes’ campaign to launch

Am in Edinburgh for the launch of the “yes” to independence campaign. There’s a morning haar due to burn off and deliver another sunny day. There are two and a half years to the planned referendum date so I’m guessing there will be other launches of this campaign along the road.

We’re not in central Edinburgh but in a cinema slightly further out of town. It’s near Sir Sean Connery’s birthplace so there’s some speculation the longstanding absentee SNP supporter will show up or be beamed in from his tax haven home. 

There are couple of strategy corsets already showing. The SNP is of course the progenitor, architect, driver and funder of this campaign … but they want this to look like a campaign born of a groundswell of popular opinion way beyond the party. I have a feeling we’re going to see as many non-SNP and non-political advocates of independence as the (mainly SNP) organisers can muster.  

The “no” campaign won’t launch until the end of June (though they’ve shown their presence slipping out a poll today – 57per cent against, 33per cent pro independence). The later launch is partly because of the difficulty of getting itself organised but they’re trying to make a virtue of it as it means it’ll come after Alex Salmond has to give evidence to the Leveson inquiry about his relationship with the Murdoch empire.

Labour figures think that helped to return some defecting Labour supporters to the SNP fold in this month’s local elections. They also mutter of divisions forming in the SNP ranks, dissatisfaction with Alex Salmond, resistance to his commitment to a second question on devo max.

They would say that wouldn’t they, you could argue. Alistair Darling has (after some persuading) agreed to be the figurehead of the campaign. It’ll start off being as positive as possible so as not to play into the SNP argument that “they’re trying to frighten you off independence” … then it will slip into top gear and try to do exactly that.

And the “no’s” have a big mighty Eurozone-shaped crisis to help them with their campaign of fear plus a double dip recession and the lingering aftermath of a global banking crisis to boot.

Would Scotland really be economically better off under independence? That’s where the SNP and fellow Yes campaigners need to work hard. Only a third of Scots appear to think it would according to polls. A third are undecided. But these can’t be perfect economic conditions for convincing anyone that times are going to get better or that risks should be taken with a giant leap into the unknown. 

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