28 Aug 2013

Syria crisis: Labour unease over intervention

Ed Miliband appears to have hardened up his stance on Syria. Shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander told BBC Radio 4’s World at One that Labour wanted the UN to have considered a report from UN weapons inspectors before a vote.

The UN secretary general just said in New York that such a report was 4 days off minimum and it’s quite clear that is outside the timescale for an attack that the US was considering.

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Earlier, Mr Miliband signalled that he wanted a “UN moment” before giving his support to any military action. So what’s going on?

A ‘UN moment’

After a tough summer under heavy internal criticism, Mr Miliband has been feeling distinctly under pressure. His personal poll ratings currently match those of William Hague when he was Tory leader.

Being leader of the opposition when conflict is under consideration is a tricky job at the best of times. On Tuesday, Mr Miliband proved that.

He tried to show firmness of purpose by not knocking the whole idea of action against Syria.

On camera, he ended up repeating the form of words used by David Cameron and that struck fear into the hearts of some Labour MPs, amongst them people who might be considered his closest supporters.

One MP said Mr Miliband sounded like Iain Duncan Smith when he gave support to Tony Blair over Iraq.

Some of this was relayed to Mr Miliband and Tuesday night his team briefed certain journalists that Mr Miliband wanted “a UN moment” before any action.

By that, they explained, they meant consideration at the UN of a motion authorising action. Mr Milband had good reason to know this was coming anyway as when he met Mr Cameron and Nick Clegg on Tuesday in Downing Street.

Mr Clegg said that he was hoping for just such a “moment.” The announcement of the UN “moment” – a UK motion will go forward, even if it looks certain to be vetoed by the Russians – duly came but Mr Miliband’s internal difficulties continued.

There are senior figures in his party deeply concerned about the position he’s struck so far, some concerned that for the sake of looking strong and answering the summer critics he is failing to stand up to military action or question it strongly enough.

Read more: ‘UN moment’ on Syria

Senior figures say the “wait for the inspectors” line and the Labour demand for sight of the legal justification for war amount to Mr Miliband hitting the “reverse gear.”

There is talk of Mr Miliband putting down an amendment to the government’s motion stipulating his “wait for the inspectors” line.

That would mean either the amendment passed or Labour would abstain on the unamended government motion leaving Mr Cameron with a paper victory but a hugely damaging result.

Things are looking pretty fluid right now in a way they weren’t on Tuesday when Mr Miliband sounded more on board.

Meanwhile, he’s made life much more difficult for Mr Cameron if he’s going to stick to the “no authorisation without inpsectors’ full reports” line.

It wasn’t Labour’s line on Tuesday or Wednesday morning so who knows whether it will be a firm “red line” that stops them supporting the motion on Thursday?

On Mr Cameron, Matthew d’Ancona has a take that will strike fear in the hearts of some Tory MPs who are sceptical about the PM’s claim that intervention against chemical weapons is different from intervention to change regime.

He writes:  “In private, the PM sees this tactic (ie the current planned attack on Syria) as his best chance yet of launching — at last — the strategic process he previously hoped would be expedited by arming the moderate rebels: to shock Assad into realising that he is a pariah, to force him to the table, and to plan the new Syria as the Serbs, Bosnians and Croatians mapped out the future of former Yugoslavia in Dayton, Ohio, in 1995.”

Read more from Channel 4 News on Syria

Alex Thomson on the Syria ‘blitz’: behind the bombs
In the shadow of chemical weapons: an interactive map

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