Blow to Cameron with Commons defeat on Syria

British involvement in the US-led action against Syria was pretty much dead before tonight’s vote. But a sizeable number of Tory MPs saw their leader and prime minister on the floor and decided to give him a kicking.

It is a mighty challenge to David Cameron‘s authority, a re-writing of the conventions of UK/US joint military action and a powerful new precedent for parliament’s primacy over the prime ministerial prerogative to launch conflict.

The US were probably already going ahead in their attack on Syria without UK backing. Now they know there is no point in waiting. The indications are that the attack could still go ahead this weekend though there will be some in Washington who cite cold feet in the UK as an argument for stalling on their own attacks.

Ed Miliband will be feeling extremely glad he pulled back from his signalling of support for the military action. His aides strongly deny Mr Miliband radically altered his position but that’s what senior members of his own party think.

If this had been a vote authorising military action rather than the principle of military action it could’ve been lethal to David Cameron. He won’t be thinking it right now, but Ed Miliband – by stalling the authorising vote – has saved his bacon.

What motivated Tory MPs? One Tory Cabinet minister insists it is still a sign of how many Tory MPs want David Cameron out.

At his private meeting with Tory MPs earlier in the Commons, David Cameron at one point asked his MPs to imagine what Margaret Thatcher would’ve done at a moment like this. Several Tory MPs, I’m told, winced and caught each other’s eyes.

Certainly tonight will give succour to those who do want him out and maybe feared his summer boost in the polls had dented their project. They may never in this parliament get their wish but tonight could keep a serious core of them committed to the project.

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