Thoughts on a Scottish referendum

The government’s now published its thoughts on the Scottish referendum. It says a referendum must be authorised by Westminster. Any Holyrood-organised referendum without Wetsminster backing would have no more legal standing than an opinion poll and would be challenged in the UK Supreme Court.

The government has not answered the question about why it didn’t say a Holyrood referendum was illegal way back in May last year. It wouldn’t tell us when legal opinion was sought on the legality of a Salmond plan referendum – the Scottish Office says that is a state secret. When I asked one source if the government would’ve waded in and declared an Alex Salmond-style referendum illegal if he’d gone for an early one in 2011 with only independence on the ballot paper, I was told that was a retrospective, hypothetical and so impossible to answer.

But you come away from the legal documents, arguments and Commons row currently under way feeling that there is a chance that there will be no referendum before the next Holyrood elections in 2016.  It’s hard to see how Alex Salmond could find agreement with the coalition about what form the referendum should take and a go-it-alone Holyrood referendum would stand a very good chance of being ruled illegal by the Supreme Court.

Alex Salmond has not completely ruled out a Westminster Act of Parliament authorising his referendum, but he has set his face against what he calls the “strings” that the Coalition is trying to impose on him. Those strings are a series of restrictions that are outlined in a draft statutory order published today:

– the date of the poll should be sooner not later, probably earlier than the 2014/15 date originally promised by the SNP
– there should be one question on the ballot paper – independence or union – not a second question about something just short of independence
– the SNP’s plans to reduce the voting age from 18 to 16 for the referendum will be blocked
– the Electoral Commission should have overview of the referendum

Alex Salmond says he thinks all this is playing into his hands. Interviewed by Martha Kearney at lunchtime on Radio 4 World At One he talked of Westminster “control freaks … dictating terms” who should “keep their noses out” of Scottish affairs. You wonder if Alex Salmond is not going to, yet again, end up smiling from ear to ear … thinking that a constitutional row and a delay to the referendum can only help his chances of getting the result he wants when the day actually comes. Many of his opponents think he would much prefer a later poll, when he might have a better chance of winning it, and not before. Round one to Westminster, round two to the SNP?

UPDATE

Alex Salmond has now said he’ll call his referendum in Autumn 2014. This was an announcement he originally planned to make on 23 January. He’s brought it forward to capitalise on the anti-UK mood he detects building up over David Cameron’s latest proposals and to make it clear there’s no vacuum in his own plans and project them as orderly and under way. He just told Sky it would be “made in Scotland” and the “strings” proposed by the Coalition would be rejected.