Tories guarantee Lib Dems 5 May referendum date

Liberal Democrats have been assured by Tory high command that they will get their referendum on voting reform on the 5 May date planned. That’s despite the Tory rebels lining up with Labour sympathisers to try to frustrate the coalition plans.

The biggest focus of opposition still looks like being an amendment attacking the 5 May date, claiming that it will confuse voters turning out for local and devolved assembly elections.

But I am told that, before the recess, senior Lib Dems were told by senior Conservatives that they would not lose the key parts of the measure. The calculation is that some of the dissidents will be “brought round” in the weeks before the critical votes on detailed amendments. The bill starts its journey with a Second Reading vote next week as the Commons returns.

When you take the Sinn Fein absentees into account, the coalition believes it has a working majority of around 80. And coalition number-crunchers note that in the first big votes of the first session, it tended to walk away with a majority of more like something around 100, thanks to absences on the other side.

All that will change a bit, you can expect, as Labour sharpens up its focus under a new leader, and you never know what clever wheeze amendment dissenters can coalesce around, but coalition figures are saying right now that 5 May it will be.

 So, all Nick Clegg needs to do now is win it.