When to sleep with the enemy?
Another marginals poll suggesting the Tories could be in majority government zone – just. But the numbers are far too tight for them to be confident, and talk in Tory ranks is all about what might they have to trim if they were in a minority government.
The Boundaries Bill redrawing the seats and slashing the number of MPs would be an early guaranteed victim. Other parties feel it would hurt them and benefit the Tories.
The free vote on foxhunting might not be worth the trouble, depending on how many Lib Dem MPs come from rural seats. All votes would have to be treated a little less as “life and death” matters because you could die a thousand deaths if you weren’t careful.
Lib Dems I talk to think that the £6bn immediate cuts the Tories have put centre stage in this campaign could be talked about rationally and down-scaled without much difficulty because the markets would be more interested in the overall package (bound to be tougher than what we’ve already been told) and would be happy with the eye-watering nature of the overall cuts for 2011 and beyond in the emergency summer budget.
Tories say that education reforms might get through comfortably with Lib Dem support. Welfare needs little legislation, and the whole point of the criminal justice policy is to stop new offences being created every week.
What constitutes serious hung parliament territory where David Cameron would have to get into bed with another party?
There is no grid, Gus O’Donnell has not provided a ready reckoner, alas. There’s a consensus emerging that anything above 310 Tory MPs and David Cameron is entitled to run the show on his own. No-one will complain much.
The minor parties hardly ever combine in the same vote as the second and third parties, and the Tories would be able to count on Democratic Unonists for some votes.
After that it all gets a bit fuzzier, a bit of a grey area. If he’s only got around 270 MPs you’re talking coalition. If he’s in the 280s, the 290s, when does he have to get into some sort of arrangement with the Lib Dems?
When is a “confidence and supply” agreement enough (he gets support in “no confidence” and budget votes in return for some sort of consultation rights or something a bit stronger)? Is it immediately below 310 or can you still give it a go on your own if you’re at 300+?
Most I spoke to today felt that 270-290, you’d have to have some sort of agreement but you might just be able to avoid a full coalition. It would depend what the other numbers looked like, other parties’ tallies and shares of the vote, the sense of mandate.