Where does the reasonableness leave Scotland’s referendum?

This was a ceremonial meeting, and David Cameron appears to have struggled to see the point of it.

At an early stage in the meeting he praised Nicola Sturgeon and Michael Moore for coming up with an agreement on the referendum, and then said they’d done so well there wasn’t really anything to discuss.

Nonetheless, with his large delegation around him, the PM talked about how London and Holyrood could improve the sharing of information, for instance on EU matters, and on lessons from the Olympics for the 2014 Commonwealth Games.

Alex Salmond was on particularly statesmanlike and reserved form today. He never lashed out with mockery. He referred in his press conference to a note on his lecturn saying “don’t be triumphalist.” And he can claim some triumphs.

Apart from the detail on date, question and franchise, the negotiations with London have not blown into public spats. He wanted to convey the feasability of two neighbouring nations amicably settling differences, and that was the overall impression.

Both sides were, as one Whitehall aide put it, “lovebombing with reasonableness”. But where does that leave his chances of winning the referendum?

The odds are stacked against independence winning. The second question offering the devo max option was designed – depending on who you talk to – to lure devolutionists into going for independence as it was such a short leap from devo max, or to act as a mighty safety net ensuring that the SNP would not fall to the ground losing independence but potentially bounce right back proclaiming they’d secured a giant leap in the same direction.

However you view it, it is not there any more, and everything rides on one question. SNP folk talk of how they’ve been underestimated by polls and experts throughout their political lifetime, and people risk making the same mistake again.

But I’m struck by a senior SNP figure suddenly talking to me about how losing 55/45 would be a big step to achieving the goal. It would be exactly that, but you do wonder when people you’ve never heard countenance defeat spontaneously bring it up.

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