Why did Theresa May call an early election?

An early election is being held now because Theresa May believes the stars are aligned for a major Tory victory and something of a realignment of politics.

Former Tories who went to Ukip could be back in the Tory fold – the lost tribe of Tories as Boris Johnson called them, back in the mother party. Labour, Tory strategists believe, could lose somewhere around 50 seats. The Lib Dems are resurgent in some Tory held marginal seats but, as things stand, not enough to outweigh the seats won from Labour.

Theresa May claimed she’d reluctantly and late in the day decided an election was needed because there was division at Westminster and a crisis of marauding Remainers trying to stop the will of the Brexit voters of England. Her tone towards the Westminster anti-Brexit plotters was more than a little populist. Mrs May talked of MPs and peers “threatening (a future) deal,” hoping “our resolve will weaken” and “political game playing.” She said we needed a united Westminster, which might strike some people as rather an alarming thought.

Mrs May had to construct an argument explaining why she had broken her word on not calling an early election but this is not a compelling one. The calculation in Tory high command is that attacks over opportunism will quickly subside and make way for the substance of the election debate.

Theresa May had for months said an early election emphatically was what would not happen. She wouldn’t allow it. It would be bad for businesses wanting stability. It wasn’t necessary. It would be a distraction from the business of government at a testing time as it negotiates Brexit.

But even as she said this, Theresa May had Stephen Parkinson, a senior Downing Street aide and veteran of the Vote Leave campaign, in charge of a secret Downing Street unit working from the autumn of last year on the feasibility of an early election.

She may well have been converted at the last minute to this idea as she claimed in Downing Street a moment ago but Theresa May knew this moment of decision would come.

It is a measure of the tightness of the circle around Theresa May and the enigmatic quality of the Prime Minister herself that two rumours dominated the swirl in Westminster just before she made her announcement about a snap election. One rumour was that Theresa May was standing down altogether. The other that she was going to do the complete opposite and try to hold power with a mightier majority.

So will Theresa May use  the election to make hard commitments on immigration controls or will she try to avoid doing anything of the sort? Will she try to get a mandate for a harder Brexit or a personal mandate to go soft around the edges of a hard Brexit as she sees fit in negotiations.

Jeremy Corbyn has already signalled that he will be asking Labour MPs to vote for the early general election, which shows what a loose fitting straight jacket the Fixed Terms Parliament Act was. Opposition parties look frightened if they try to oppose an early election. Labour plus Tory MPs easily gives Theresa May the two thirds of MPs she needs to win that motion sanctioning an early election.

One comment from the EU, a continent already rocked by the June 2016 UK referendum and already looking at a year loaded with elections in EU member countries:

It was Hitchcock, who directed Brexit: first an earthquake and the tension rises.

— Donald Tusk (@donaldtusk) April 18, 2017