Why Tony Blair’s book matters for Labour’s leadership vote

Based on the experience of past postal ballots, the Labour Party expects 60 – 80 per cent of ballot papers in the Labour leadership contest to be filled in and returned within a week of receipt. The ballot papers go out tomorrow. 

That means that the coverage around Tony Blair’s memoirs, the degree to which it reminds Labour activists and trade unionists what they didn’t like about “The Man” as Chris Mullin calls him in his diaries, could impact on the result. 

Too much of “The Man,” rows with Gordon, the war in Iraq, and it might just drive people away from David Miliband, seen as the nearest thing to “Continuity Blair” in the contest. It might sharpen the appetite for “change,” which is the mantle Ed Miliband has been striving to grasp, even if he was in the Brown cockpit for many years.

Of course, there’s a chance that Labour activists will feel reminded of happier electoral times and will scour Tony Blair’s words to seek his guidance on who to back. But that, somehow doesn’t feel quite right. 

It seems more likely that David Miliband, currently thought to be ahead on first preferences, should be worrying that the shadow of his old boss could hurt him and he needs to have a strategy ready to deflect that damage and fast. 

Blair’s publishers plan to give you a flavour of the book in the morning papers. It’s supposed to be in bookshops as they open tomorrow.